What Scotland need to reach Euro 2024 last 16 as Group A permutations and scenarios dissected

Scotland players line up before the 1-1 draw with Switzerland at Euro 2024. | (Photo by JAVIER SORIANO/AFP via Getty Images)

Scotland have a range of permutations that could play out in their Euro 2024 decider

They’ve given themselves a fighting chance - and now Scotland are looking to take a huge Euro 2024 step.

After a 5-1 defeat to Germany, morale was severely hit in Group A. But the midweek 1-1 affair with Switzerland has rejuvenated hope that a venture into the knockout rounds is on the cards.

Head coach Steve Clarke said: “I think the mental side of the game is massive. We felt that in the first game and it was probably more the mental side that let us down. Hopefully we go to the match and we do what we’re good at. If we do that we’ve got a chance.

“The whole tournament is a sense of occasion. For Scotland, the first major overseas tournament since 1998. I was still playing then, that was a long time ago. You can see how much the supporters out here are enjoying themselves.

“I am sure the five million at home are also engrossed in the tournament. It’s not just about this game, it’s about all the games. We know we have to win the game to progress to the next round and that’s what we’ll try to do.”

So what are the permutations in Group A? Let’s take a look, including what Scotland need to pan out and reach the last 16.

Germany

Through to the last 16 already and will top the group by avoiding defeat to Switzerland. Guaranteed to finish in the top two, no matter the results thanks to wins over Scotland and Hungary.

Switzerland

One point confirms a Swiss place in the top and a win over Germany sees them top the group. All but though on four points and the only way they finish third is if they suffer defeat to Germany and Scotland beat Hungary by a margin enough to flip the goal difference in Scottish favour.

Scotland

Clarke’s side have to win to make their place all but certain. The only way to finish second is in the above mentioned scenario of a Swiss defeat and Scotland win large enough to flip the goal difference. Four points is likely to be enough, but Scotland’s goal difference means they still need results elsewhere to go for them and then hope at least two groups have their third-placed team finish with three points or less.

A scenario is there for Scotland where a draw and two points might even be enough. Group B, Group C and Group F would be the groups to keep an eye on here, as the top two teams face the bottom two teams on matchday three. If Spain and Italy (Group B), England and Denmark (Group C) and Portugal and Turkey (Group F) all clinch victory, then there would be three third-placed teams finishing on a sole point. That’s enough for Scotland to squeeze through on two.

Hungary

The current bottom side can only finish third, as a consequence of two defeats in their two games so far. They must beat Scotland and preferably by a few goals if they are to be one of the four top third-placed teams on three points.