IF ever proof is needed of the truth of Harold Wilson's dictum that a week is a long time in politics, students of the black arts could do worse than cite the events of the last week in Scotland. This time last week, Labour was still seen as the natural party of government in Scotland. OK, the SNP sits in the Government's seats in Holyrood, but Labour was still seen as the A-team, capable of re-establishing its pole position.
A mere seven days and an SNP majority of 365 later, and the landscape is completely different. Take a turn down the streets pounded by balloon-wielding party activists last Wednesday and you'll wonder why the SNP didn't call for a re-count instead of
Labour. I'd bet my bottom dollar you won't meet too many people who'll admit to voting Labour last week.
Labour lost because of a multitude of factors, but they all really only added up to the harsh reality of the party being past its sell-by date, out of puff and new ideas for coping with the global economic turndown. The sort of people who would once have trusted "their" Labour party to do the right thing by them, even if the evidence of this actually happening is patchy, to be super-diplomatic, in the East End of Glasgow, have developed the same sort of shrewdness towards the promises made by Labour, and other politicians, as they deploy in purchasing other goods and services.
And even those who couldn't break the habit of their parents' lifetime, a week and millions of words later, are going with the tide and enjoying the excitement, and hope, engendered by John Mason's win. The party they left behind has been exposed as a shell of what it once was: no organisation, precious few members, confused policies and beliefs, marooned on either side of the debate over the future of Holyrood, no strategy, no money and no chance of being on the winning side in the next UK election, whenever it comes.
The Lib Dems look more vulnerable to a three-way squeeze in Scotland than they did a week ago. Their prospects probably depend on whether their choice of leader, Tavish Scott or Ross Finnie, seeks an arrangement with the SNP in Holyrood ... and whether Alex Salmond is wise enough to say no.
The Tories, too, are in a different place from last Wednesday. They were never in danger of winning the seat then, and they aren't now, but elsewhere in Scotland they're being looked on more kindly than for a couple of decades. This, still-fragile, new relationship with Scots voters might not win them many seats in the Westminster elections, but I'd bet on their winning a lot more votes in the next Holyrood elections ... provided they don't wrap themselves in the Union Jack.
As for the SNP, the danger lies in its possible under-estimation and misunderstanding of the difference this week has made. John Mason was portrayed by Labour, unremittingly, as an unreconstructed, hardline, fundamentalist ... and people voted for him. Margaret Curran told anyone who'd listen that "Independence would be disastrous for Scotland" ... and people voted for the SNP, the party of Independence.
It should be obvious to the SNP movers that they need not shake in their boots at taking an Independence Information Campaign to voters, starting as soon as the material is prepared ... the last week's phone-ins, letters pages, blogs, etc, show voters to be amenable to considering the constitutional question on its merits.
And although the last week has simply underlined the likelihood of the Tories winning the general election in England, the SNP lame-brains who're reported to have had discussions with them on being granted some more devolved powers for Holyrood must be stopped from snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Olympic strugglesWhat can we do to get the message to the Chinese authorities that in spite of the nations of the world sending their athletes to Beijing, they should not interpret this as signalling approval, or even acquiescence, regarding their human rights, torture and censorship policies?
The Beijing government has already made plain that normal procedure will be followed by the police, etc, should any athletes or team officials protest, even in the same silent way as the "Black Power" American sprinters at the Mexico games.
Although we might regret that more athletes have not voiced support for greater human rights, we cannot expect them to put themselves in the firing line when, as a community, we've fallen short of saying what should have been said, long before the Opening Ceremony.
The full article contains 783 words and appears in Edinburgh Evening News newspaper.
