Salmond must join referendum dots

IT'S unattractive to say "I told you so" when predictions are proved correct. I'll apologise right off for doing so, but I lost a few friends when I criticised the SNP's approach to how and when to have a referendum on independence.

Before asking Scots to make up their minds, the SNP has to join up the dots on the big picture by running an information and education campaign. I'm sorry if this rains on the SNP's first anniversary parade. That's the humility bit – now for the hard talk.

I've warned for years about the SNP's wheeze of tying its electoral success – and in case we forget, Scotland's future – to a referendum that could very easily be usurped by its unionist opponents. My concern is based on the experience of the first devolution referendum in 1979, and the EU referendum in 1975. In both cases the Westminster establishment determined the rules, the question and the timing.

The SNP may be in government in Edinburgh but Labour is in power in Westminster. The government of the day, regardless of party, will be quite capable of taking over the promise, then staging a referendum at a time of its choosing. What would constitute a majority – one vote? or would there be other measurements of what the Scots really, really want?

The argument that Holyrood lacks the legal authority to call an independence referendum can be overcome, but Westminster will have a fallback position should the Scots vote for independence.

On one point, I was off the pace as to Labour's response to the SNP's referendum, because seven or eight years ago I didn't foresee Gordon Brown's spectacular fall from grace.

That long ago, it looked as though London would call the shots and Labour in Edinburgh would fire them. But now Wendy Alexander will paddle her own canoe and behind the scenes, Labour – in collusion with the other London-based unionist parties – will use the weapons of state at its disposal to hole Alex Salmond's campaign below the waterline.

From her perspective, Wendy was sharp to call for the SNP leader to table a Referendum Bill asap, because it will take time to get such a bill debated and passed by MSPs, and a campaign fitted in before the next election. By inviting him to "bring it on!" Labour's Scottish leader has deprived the First Minister of the right to claim "We wuz robbed of the chance to vote for what the Scots want".

Alex might have only a few short months to educate and inform the broad swathe of Scottish opinion that's vaguely sympathetic to Holyrood having more powers over our lives through a fairer and simpler, tax and benefits system; no nuclear weapons and the right to do our own talking in the EU.

So far, neither Alex Salmond nor any of his Cabinet has consistently reminded Scots that these are sovereign powers, currently exercised by Westminster, that are indivisible from what we call independence, or equality of legal status between Holyrood and Scotland.

Labour will characterise independence as "separation". The word conveys a negative, solitary future for Scotland outside the UK. The SNP had better start to identify areas of public policy and resources management that will be best served either by close cooperation – perhaps even joint action on the part of Westminster, Holyrood and, where necessary, by the other legislatures of our islands.

The First Minister would be well advised to rope-in some sympathisers among Scotland's policy wonks to work out the details of what's needed, so that they can be mulled over by Scots well in advance of any independence referendum. His White Paper that preceded the National Conversation was inadequate, emphasising devolution and not sovereignty.

Cancer warning
CANCER Research UK warns that tanning enthusiasts under 35 can increase their chances of developing skin cancer by up to 75% by regular use of sunbeds. The Health and Safety Executive suggests sunbeds should only be accessed by 18-year-olds and above.

For once I'm on the side of the nanny state. Twenty years ago, reporting for a BBC consumer programme, because of the lack of attention to safe practice I encountered in some of the tanning establishments I visited, the inevitable conclusion was that strict monitoring and licensing regulations were needed. Two decades on, the experts appear unimpressed with progress.

Place in society
THERE'S nothing new in athletes doing a bunk from oppressive regimes when they're competing abroad, like the Eritrean distance runners who claimed asylum here after competing in the World Cross Country Championships in Edinburgh.

It was pretty much par for the course that teams representing countries on the other side of the Iron Curtain would fly home from the West with spare seats on the aircraft. America attracted most Eastern Block athletes, including a teenage Martina Navratilova, who became all-American with a vengeance.

But her chosen compatriots withheld their love until she had proved herself the world's greatest. Let's hope the Eritreans are well integrated and loved in Scotland in time to claim their places in the Commonwealth Games Team.