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Hagglers bring down prices for city houses



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Published Date: 03 September 2008
HOME buyers are cashing in on the housing slump in Edinburgh by haggling over fixed prices sales.
Almost two-thirds of all homes for sale in the Capital are now sold at fixed price. And of those, more than 60 per cent actually end up being sold for less.

New figures show an average of only 13 homes a day were sold in Edinburgh last month, comp
ared to 32 a day in August 2007.

The Edinburgh Solicitors Property Centre (ESPC) has also recorded the first fall in the average price of property in 37 years.

The average cost of a home in the city last month was £201,517, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5 per cent.

David Marshall, business analyst at the ESPC, said the rise in fixed price sales was an inevitable result of the market slowdown.

He said: "It is more enticing if the seller has a clear idea in mind of exactly what price they are after.

"If selling at 'offers over', some sellers will put a lower selling price to attract interest while others will put a property on at a higher price in the hope that they achieve a higher selling price. Fixed prices offer more clarity in a market where there are a higher number of sellers than buyers."

Of the 400 sales in August, 243 were at fixed prices.

Last year, just 28 per cent of sellers of fixed-price homes accepted an offer below the original asking price. This had risen to 60 per cent by last month.

"It reflects the change in the market," said Mr Marshall. "Demand is down and it is constrained by lending and affordability.

"Buyers are aware that sellers are facing increased competition from other sellers and are aware that, if their bid fails, there will be other options out there for them."

And experts are forecasting that further price deflation of between five and ten per cent will be seen for the next 12-18 months, with the average price expected to dip well below £200,000 before the end of the year.

Ron Smith, chief executive of the ESPC added: "Typically it takes people much longer to respond to news that the market is cooling than it does for them to react to news of rising house prices, so the fact that we are already seeing evidence of this sort of change in behaviour is good news for the long-term health of the market."

The Government announcement that the threshold for stamp duty is to be increased to £175,000 instead of £125,000 was designed to breath new life into the property market.

But property agents do not expect it to revive the Edinburgh market. Scott Brown, an estate agency partner at Warners, a member of the ELPG group of property solicitors, said that the announcement would help encourage those who have held back awaiting the new policy to now make a decision.

But he added: "Back in 1992 they raised the threshold to £250,000 and now, 16 years later, they have not increased it to the same limit."


We put it on the market then.. nothing
CHRISTINA MACMILLAN, 28, and her husband Andy, 29, have had their two-bedroom house in Upper Craigour on the market since June 1.

The couple had the house valued at £155,000 but decided to put the house up at £140,000 fixed price for a "quick sale".

She added: "We had one viewing on the Sunday after we put it on the market and then nothing.

"Eventually we dropped the price to £132,500 and agreed to pay stamp duty – which obviously doesn't mean anything now as stamp duty has been suspended for all properties below £175,000.

"I called our lawyer today who advised us to keep the offer as it is and give the buyers some money, or drop the price again.

"Since we dropped the price we've had quite a few viewings but no confirmed buyers.

"Andy and I discussed it and if we don't get any interest in the house by the end of the month then we're going to put it up for rent."






The full article contains 705 words and appears in Edinburgh Evening News newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

  • Last Updated: 03 September 2008 10:25 AM
  • Source: Edinburgh Evening News
  • Location: Edinburgh
 
1

David Harrington,

Edinburgh 03/09/2008 13:08:33
It certainly is not a good time for people to be selling houses - but this doesn't change the long term position that there is far more demand than supply of houses in the city.
2

tomias,

Edinburgh 03/09/2008 13:18:18
Negotiating house prices as well as legal fees has always been possible.
3

Statsman,

Edinburgh 03/09/2008 13:30:53
1 David Harrington

If a large percentage of demand was due to speculators buying multiple properties using daft lending instruments, it is hard to know what the actual demand is.
4

David Harrington,

Edinburgh 03/09/2008 13:38:42
No, the population of the city is increasing substantially without the house building necessary to sustain it. The current problem has more to do with the current constrain on lending. Most "speculators" have a very small number of properties and the increase in buy to let over the past few years only gets us back closer to the historic norm and more in line with other European countries - there is no evidence to suggest it will not continue.
5

David Harrington,

Edinburgh 03/09/2008 13:39:06
That was in response to #3 of course
6

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

03/09/2008 13:53:04
#4 reckons: "The current problem has more to do with the current constrain on lending"

The thing is that it's not current lending that's constrained, it was the lending during the quarter-century bubble that was exacerbated by reckless lending and unsustainable schemes such as securitisation of mortgage-backs.

What we're seeing now is a return to something approaching normality. I also disagree that this is a "problem" when in fact it is the solution to the problem.
7

,

03/09/2008 14:12:38
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
8

sceptic,

livingston 03/09/2008 15:16:56
The myth of demand outstripping supply continually inflating house prices in Edinburgh has been exposed. Demand outstrips supply even now, the only problem being that the demand lies with potential buyers the majority of whom have been priced out of the market. With the return to some sanity in the lending market ie 80% loans at 3-4 times earnings many will have a long wait before they can return.
9

alex paterson,

edinburgh 03/09/2008 15:27:41
Very good,but this is nothing new.
10

E300,

03/09/2008 15:39:58
Four years of inflation at 3%, and a 20% to 30% fall in house prices should bring some stability to the housing market. We can expect another spate if "irrational exuberance" starting in ten or twelve years.
11

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

03/09/2008 17:34:57
Correct Mister skeptic:

Someone who wants a house but can't pay for it or get someone else such as a bank to pay for it is not "demand" as economists understand the word, but someone indulging in wishful thinking.

During the bubble, house prices have operated somewhat as bond prices. A 1% cut in the interest rate from 6% to 5% means a 17% hike in house prices as people can bid a higher price on the same monthly payment.

A rise in the mortgage/salary ration from 3 times earnings to 6 times earnings means a doubling of house prices. The negation of the need for a deposit through 100% or even 125% mortgages brings in yet new bidders and increases prices yet more.

These are all features of the bubble though. The requirement for a deposit knocks out some bidders and drives down bids. A rise in rates from 5% to 6% means a 17% fall in prices eventually and a cut from 6 times salary to 3 times salary means a halving of prices.

The long and the short of it is that housing is paid for with money, not by people who merely wish they had one.

The credit bust inevitably means debt-deflation, which is to say that very large amounts of credit will vanish and much wealth will be destroyed. It will be a very long time before we see that amount of credit floating around the financial system again. Even if it somehow does, the consequences right now will make people a great deal more careful about lending and borrowing.

The result is that there will not be again that huge amount of debt bidding up house prices.
12

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

03/09/2008 18:16:39
Buy gold now, get more house later:

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/how-house-prices-could-fall-by-75-from-here-in-gold-terms-13547.aspx
13

Plodjfriss, Hammer of the Numpties,

Edinburgh 03/09/2008 19:01:00
#11: Shouldn't one of your 17%'s be a 20%?
14

Kitti Kat,

Newtown Square 03/09/2008 19:40:39
We are having the same problems with real estate here in PA. Houses that are worth at least $250,000 (for a two bedroom,1 bath)are selling, if the owner is lucky , for the $175,000 to $200,00 not coiunting the owners who are giving all sorts of perks just to make a sale. Were I looking for another house, this would be a great time. Trying to see is a different story. Good luck to all who are attempting to sell!
15

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

03/09/2008 20:23:43
#13: No, 1/6 is 17% give or take, but by next year, who'll care whether it's either?
16

Julian.,

edinburgh 03/09/2008 22:37:37
Fernando,

You have an overly sceptical view of the market. As many people have said, the fundamental demand for housing in Edinburgh remains. The only missing factor is banks and building societies with surplus funds to lend to people. This situation is already starting to change with mortgage rates starting to fall in the last couple of months.

As the banks start to recover they will be falling over each other to lend to those safe bet customers on a self cert or fast track basis. The only part of the mortgage market which will take longer to recover is the 100% mortgages as banks will only reintroduce these as prices start to rise again. But the 100% market is only a very small part.

Watch this space for house prices to start to rise from spring next year.
17

ccc,

03/09/2008 23:04:28
#14

"Houses that are worth at least $250,000 (for a two bedroom,1 bath)are selling, if the owner is lucky , for the $175,000 to $200,000"

Sorry to point this out but if a house is 'only' selling for 175,000 then it is only worth 175,000.

#16

Aye sure prices will rise next year. Just as the real impact of the recession hits home. Just as people get used to the fact that prices fall in Edinburgh as well as rise. So who exactly are going to buy up the massive surplus of houses that are up for sale just now ? And when they are all sold just who exactly are going to buy all the homes that come onto the market at the usual rate ?

Delusion. The time has long gone for this sort of thinking.

The game is over. House prices in Edinburgh will fall by 30%+. And that is being conservative !!
18

Plodjfriss, Hammer of the Numpties,

Edinburgh 03/09/2008 23:14:35
FoFP, Sorry to bang on about your arithmetic, but I still think your first 17% should be 20%. Suppose that interest rates atre at 6% and you've got £500 a month to spare, which we'll assume you spend on an interest-only mortgage. You spend £6,000 a year on interest, and if that's 6% of the principal then you can afford a loan of 100/6 * 6000 = £100,000. Interest rates drop to 5%: your £6000 is then 5% of £120,000, so you can afford a loan 20% greater than previously, so prices rise by 20%. If rates go back to 6% then what you can afford drops from £120,000 to £100,000, a decrease of about 17%. It's the old thing that if prices go up by 50% and then go back to where they were before, it's only a drop of 33% (or if prices go up by 50% and then drop by 50% then overall they've dropped by 25%).

Still, as you say, as long as prices are going down, who cares?
19

Plodjfriss, Hammer of the Numpties,

Edinburgh 03/09/2008 23:23:31
#16: Julian, you say that FoFP's view of the market is overly sceptical, but I think your view may be overly optimistic. At the weekend Alistair Darling stated that (and I quote) economic conditions "are arguably the worst they've been in 60 years"..."And I think it's going to be more profound and long-lasting than people thought."

If he's correct (and remember that he's the Chancellor of the Exchequer) then we're all in big trouble, and the housing market's going to be the least of our worries. There's a distinct possibility of significant job losses and rising unemployment, and people just aren't going to have the money to spend £300,000 on a 2-bed flat in Bruntsfield. There's also a good chance that there'll be a lot of job losses in our much-fêted financial sector, which may cause problems for many of those who already own houses.

Now maybe none of this will happen, but I still think everything's far from rosy.
20

Julian.,

edinburgh 04/09/2008 00:58:49
#17 ccc,

You seem to relish the prospect. The bigger the fall the better. Anyway, back to the facts.
(1) A 30%+ fall is not a fact, just speculation.
(2) You ask where the demand is coming from.
(a) A population that has grown rapidly and is predicted to continue growing
(b) A tendency for more single person households, something reflected nationally and the reason why the governnment is struggling to build enough homes.
(3) House prices have fallen because of a credit problem internationally, not the fact that there has been a sudden drop in people wanting to buy in Edinburgh.

As I say, 1 year from now mortgages will be as freely available as they were 6 months ago with the possible exception of 100%. What you say ignores some basic insticts. That of the desire for people to buy more properties in Edinburgh and the desire for banks to make money out of us through mortgages.

As for your average house price fall...last month it was a 7% rise. Next month if there's a few mansions sold it will be back on the rise again. As I've said before these month by month figures are totally unreliable.
21

Julian.,

edinburgh 04/09/2008 01:04:33
Plodjfriss,

Thanks for that. But the fact remains that unemployment is still low and so are base rates. House prices haven't fallen in Edinburgh (if indeed they have) because of those factors. It's nearly all down to the availability of credit with lenders at the moment only prepared to give money to the safe bet borrowers. When that changes and lenders relax their borrowing rules so will the confidence in the housing market.
22

dodderer,

Edinburgh 04/09/2008 10:48:59
I blame it all on the trams
23

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

04/09/2008 12:02:50
#16. Julian: 100% mortgages will not return. Even were the banks willing to try something so reckless again, there has been too much taxpayer cash used in too many countries to bail out the banks.

The political result of this will be controls on bank lending. They simply will not be permitted to lend without the requirement of a deposit so substantial that public money will not again be at risk in falling property markets.

Securitisation in its current form has led to the loss of 600 billion Dollars so far, with predictions of up to a couple of trillion total losses before this is over. Again, regulation will not permit its return in current form. If it doesn't return at all, banks will be reliant on deposits and current levels of lending will remain the norm.

If securitisation does make a return, the banks will be required to hold a substantial fraction of the "toxic waste" tranches on their own books so that they take first hit on any mortgage impairment. This will make the banks a great deal more careful in future lending. This will force them into requiring substantial deposits (20% or 25%?) because the evidence is overwhelming that defaults are lower for such mortgages.

The inevitable conclusion is that what was "normal" in the 25 year credit bubble is now dead and buried. Markets in future will be a lot more like they are now than they were during the bubble.
24

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

04/09/2008 12:04:38
#18: yes, you're correct. My arithmetic was out.

My apologies.
25

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

04/09/2008 12:10:06
#19: If the bust of this credit bubble follows the normal pattern, the next hit (after the financial intermediaries) will be in retail.

Unfortunately for the UK, the biggest build up in jobs over the last decade was due to state employment and retail. That government tax takings are going down is uncontroversial. Local and national government agencies will begin laying off staff soon.

The retail buildup will go into reverse too as people begin to save and pay down debt instead of spending. Those sacked in retail will be unable to pay mortgages and this will lead to more oversupply on the housing markets, as well as further bank imppairments - this time in the very much larger prime mortgage sector. In turn that will mean less cash available to make mortgages.

It's interesting to note in the US, which is two years further down the line than us, prime mortgage defaults exceeded subprime defaults for the first time last month.
26

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

04/09/2008 12:12:20
#20 Julian; Credit busts mean fewer divorces. Yesterday's BBC webpage had an article noting that this trend had begun and would lead to lower household formation. Meanwhile immigrants have started moving from the UK to anywhere they can still make money.

What I'm seeing is an increasing surplus of housing, not a shortage of it.

 

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