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Housing slump hits Capital market as sales drop by 25%



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Published Date: 28 August 2008
THE number of homes being sold in Edinburgh has dropped by more than a quarter compared to the same time last year.
New figures show only 3008 residential properties were sold between April and June, a sharp drop on the 4032 sold in the same period of last year.

The comprehensive figures from Registers of Scotland chart the price of every home sold in the count
ry.

The overall value of sales also fell by more than £177 million, or 21 per cent.

Property experts say the decline in sales volumes has accelerated further in recent months, with only half the number of properties now being sold as at the same time last year.

David Marshall, business analyst at the Edinburgh Solicitors Property Centre, believes its members could post a fall in prices in the current quarter to the end of September.

He said: "We are starting to see more of a buyers' market develop, with the average premium now at 17 per cent – ten per cent lower than last year. We expect that to start to translate into a fall in average prices.

"If we continue to see what has been seen recently we would certainly expect the average price to come down. There have been a lot more fixed prices and more sales below fixed prices.

"Sellers are now accepting that the market has changed – for a long time that did not happen. That will have an impact on the prices they are expecting."

The Registers of Scotland data, widely regarded as the most reliable property index as it includes every house sold, shows that despite the slowdown in sales, the average price of property in Edinburgh increased by 5.9 per cent year-on-year, to £221,209.

East Lothian prices rose 0.1 per cent to £192,747, while West Lothian was up 3.1 per cent at £145,729 and Midlothian nudged ahead by 1.3 per cent to £170,889.

Michael Annan, property manager at Aikman Annan, which has three offices in the Capital, said: "The fall in the number of houses being sold is down to the unprecedented situation on liquidity. People have also put properties on the market and seen them stall because they have unrealistic expectations.

"I don't believe we have a long-term problem like America, where there are too many properties, because there is still more demand than supply in some areas.

"If someone came to me with a new-build bought last year I'd say you'll probably be deflated because the price is down considerably. But if it is a good property in Trinity, or a family home, they are still selling fairly well."

Andrew Smith, a partner at Strutt & Parker in Edinburgh, believes the healthy top end is masking drops in value at the lower end. He said: "The difficulty with these statistics is that they hide a lot of factors. What we have seen is a very different market where the higher value properties are much easier to sell.

"The majority of these mid-top end buyers have probably already built up a lot of equity and will not look at properties that require as big a mortgage as the lower end."





The full article contains 545 words and appears in Edinburgh Evening News newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

  • Last Updated: 28 August 2008 10:36 AM
  • Source: Edinburgh Evening News
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Related Topics: Mortgage and property news
 
1

ccc,

28/08/2008 12:34:07
Nice realistic article :)

As predicted those who have been hoisting the 'Edinburgh is different' mantra will now be the first to push prices down. They need sales to survive. They are more desperate for prices to fall, and people to actually start buying again, than anyone else.


"Andrew Smith, a partner at Strutt & Parker in Edinburgh, believes the healthy top end is masking drops in value at the lower end. He said: "The difficulty with these statistics is that they hide a lot of factors. What we have seen is a very different market where the higher value properties are much easier to sell."

-----------------------------------------------------

mmm. Dejavu...

I am sure a number of canny commenters stated this very thing months ago.

No names of course. :)

Also looks like David Marshall is setting us up for YOY falls come the ESPC next quarterly release. That should help matters. Blow a hole in this 'Edinburgh is different' nonsense once and for all and get this 'correction' of prices back to reasonable levels sooner rather then later.
2

Tookie,

Compton 28/08/2008 12:59:46
#1

You sound slighty familiar...

Interesting to note house prices in Edinburgh are still rising according to this.
3

Clen Peapus,

Edinburgh 28/08/2008 13:05:11
A lot of the sales between April and June may have been agreed weeks if not a few months beforehand. I sold a property at the end of April, but the sale had been agreed end January/very early February, before the true effects of the credit crunch were apparent in the housing market. I suspect that the July-September figures will be more telling. Sales will not only be down on the previous year, but I'd expect down on the previous quarter too, by how much is the only question.
4

Boy Wonder,

28/08/2008 13:07:20
It's not easy to get on the property ladder and it's just become a lot harder! We need more houses for renting.
5

ccc,

28/08/2008 13:17:25
The key to all this is PATIENCE.

Houses are not going to get cheaper overnight. They took 10 years to get up to these silly levels so expect a few years to get back down to where they should be.

We do need more social housing clearly. How that is going to happen who knows..
6

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

28/08/2008 13:18:07
Is this the same David Marshall who predicted a "levelling-off" of prices just a couple of months ago? How often can someone be wrong and still be an expert?

7

Steven P,

edinburgh 28/08/2008 13:21:57
#2
Only the average house price in Edinburgh is rising.
House prices are not.
Example -
last year: 2 flats at £150k ea, 2 houses at £300k ea. average price £225k.
this year: 1 flat at £140k ea, 2 houses at £280k ea. average price £233k.

8

Tookie,

Compton 28/08/2008 13:23:15
#4

Prices predicted to drop, but the item becomes harder to buy...confusing this property lark, isn't it?
9

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

28/08/2008 13:23:38
#4: As prices fall, it will become easier for new buyers to buy property. As for the "property ladder", we'll have more property snakes for a while.

#5: I expect government agencies to buy unsaleable flats and houses and turn these into social housing. The best time to do this will be when prices bottom because the taxpayers will get more bang for the buck.

That will put a foundation in at market bottom. Expect ructions however. The middle-classes pay a premium for housing to separate themselves from chavs and neds. They won't be pleased to see them moving in next door just because a flat or house was empty when the market hit nadir.


10

Tookie,

Compton 28/08/2008 13:24:46
#7

Yup, understood, don't worry.
11

Tookie,

Compton 28/08/2008 13:27:22
#9

Re social housing I agree to an extent. Some of the cause for the explosion in house prices in Edinburgh was the fact that the "chavs and neds" were able to buy up the social housing stock for dirt cheap years ago.
12

ccc,

28/08/2008 13:56:33
#11

That is interesting. I can see teh reason for Maggie's plan of doing this. People won their own homes = areas become more 'self policing' and the residents have a bit more respect for their areas/homes etc..

I can totally understadn that. However at the same time they have not been replacing these houses at a fast enough rate for those that still require council housing.

As FOFP says we may well see huge tranches of unsaleable 'apartments' sold off to the council to try to redress this imbalance.

I do hope they wait for a few years though to get the best value. Knowing what our Governments and Councils are like they will probably offer top notch prices...
13

ccc,

28/08/2008 13:59:02
Sorry should have said "own their own homes".

Maybe I was not far off though !!
14

The Geniune Mario Antionette,

28/08/2008 14:24:49
the slump is only 25% - its not even a quarter
15

The Landlord,

Edinburgh 28/08/2008 14:32:14
Same old stuff from CCC and Mike!

Once again housing prices accross the board have dropped but in reality you will be able to buy for less thus the "real loss" is not as bad as you think.

I strongly anticipate the banks will recover sooner than journalists who try to sensationalize everything would have you believe (I suppose they have to write about something) and house prices will level off and may in the future start moving upwards again.

The demand for housing in Edinburgh is still strong and the confidence is there whereby you have at present around 1000 people looking to sell and then buy. The problem that we are facing is that without 100% mortgages the person in Tollcross cannot sell and buy in Bruntsfield and the person in Bruntsfield cannot sell and but in Morningside etc - they say the chain effect on average affects around 6 properties;then add to the mix all the headlines about the spiralling costs of living and the chance there may be a tax holiday for SDLT and the problem gets worse.

Hopefully the Autumn statement will sort out the SDLT speculation.

As I have mentioned before the banks want to make money so it is just a matter of time and I guarantee they will get back to their old ways. One of the banks will start to offer 100% mortgages again causing the other banks to follow whereby they will not want to miss out on the action.

As for "neds" moving in next to the middle-class, whilst some developers may sell the odd flat or two in a block the housing associations always prefer to buy whole blocks so this will occur on a tiny scale.
16

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

28/08/2008 15:25:54
Landlord:

The 100% mortgages relied on the securitisation market. It won't come back in its prior form - that could only exist in a bubble. Also, due to the amount of taxpayer help this required for the banks, if securitisation even looked like coming back, the regulators would change the rules so that it couldn't.

It *could* come back in some form that required the banks to hold the toxic waste tranches on their own books so that they took first hit on any morgages that beca,e impaired. That in itself though would make the banks careful to the extent they'd require 20% or 25% deposits.

The argument is moot in the short term anyway. Credit cards, car loans, commercial property loans and so on are starting to see impairment on their own derivatives. That means more writeoffs for the banks and yet fewer mortgage loans available.

You keep saying this takes a crystal ball, but it doesn't. Watching what happens in credit derivatives now tells anyone who wants to know what will be happening in the mortgage markets in a few months. If you know the tide is going out, you know what's going to happen on the beach later.
17

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

28/08/2008 15:37:08
Landlord:

Someone else who thinks the banks have yet more trouble to come:

http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economics/why-the-northern-rock-bail-out-will-cost-you-more-13501.aspx
18

The Landlord,

Edinburgh 28/08/2008 15:49:52
Mike:

1. I agree the banks have more trouble to come but not everyone would agree with you and my crystal ball comment relates to the fact that the extent of the trouble is uncertain and just because the words are printed in a newspaper it does not make them true;
2. I am no economist but 100% mortgages do not completely rely on securitisation and I am assured by a director of RBS that they will come back in some way or another and sooner than people would expect (we cannot debate this point any further because I am no expert);
3. our firm has experienced a mini-recovery within the property department over the past month therefore I am extremley up-to-date with the figures so you should listen to what others are telling you especially when they may actually know better;
4. I cannot be bothered with people making comments which try to influence peoples thoughts and make them worried about their current circumstances - to you this may seem fascinating (your words not mine) and it makes you come accross as extremley naive; and
5. I am certain we will go through a bad spell but it is simply not in my nature to listen to doom and gloom rubbish whereby I am certain within a few years we will be back to business as usual.
19

ccc,

28/08/2008 15:58:44
Landlord:

"Within a few years we will be back to business as usual."

Only sensible thing you have said :)

Do you actually realise what 'business as usual' is ?

I will give you a clue. It involves average house prices being about 3-4 times average salary. It does not involve self certification or 100% plus mortgages.

It is very simple really.

BTW you have yet to let me kconfirm what profession you are. Is it a solicitor or a property lawyer today - both ? Maybe a 3rd career that you haven't told us about yet !! You have many talents it seems.

;)
20

Joe Smith.,

Moscow 28/08/2008 16:00:44

Falling house prices is a good thing. Houses are for living in, not profiting from.

21

MB,

Edinburgh 28/08/2008 16:19:07
There's no need for a crystal ball or any other methods of arcane divination when it comes to property markets. Land values follow an 18-year cycle that has been mapped out in detail by Fred Harrison in his study of land values in the UK going back over 200 years. This 18-year cycle fits perfectly with what we're currently seeing in the market. Prices in England started to crash in 1990 and the worst year of falls was 1992. Now, 18 years later in 2008, we're seeing the beginning of a crash that will last at least 4 years, just as the last one did. 2010 will be the worst year and house prices will begin to slowly stabilise in 2012.

Scotland matches this pattern as well. The crash here last time was not so extreme because the boom had not been extreme either but it was about a year behind the English market then too. It's got nothing to do with supply or demand and everything to do with the 18 year cycle of land speculation which causes house prices to peak and trough as speculators pile in and bid up prices every so often. Once prices reach unaffordability (as they have in Edinburgh now), they have to drop back to allow new entrants into the market. There is no way that prices can reach a peak and then hold that peak (without wage inflation) as the bottom rung of new market entrants is vital to keep transactions going.

Let's face it: the crash is a good and necessary thing that will allow the next generation of home buyers to get into the market and keep the 18 year cycle going (although hopefully with not so much speculative excess next time). Landlord: you need a crash so you can stay in business. If prices stay as high as they are now, you'll eventually run out of customers, 100% mortgages or not! It's very basic logic - just think it through: can a market sustain values at 10 times the average earner's gross income? It doesn't really work, does it?
22

The Landlord,

Edinburgh 28/08/2008 16:22:06
CCC - still on about this eh!

Okay for the fourth time:

A solicitor is just another name for a lawyer! I work as a corporate lawyer in a firm that has a property department with property lawyers. The firm I work for has numerous different types of lawyers and this is common - not difficult CCC

House prices will always be over inflated CCC and given your level of intelligence I am certain you will always struggle - ha ha!
23

The Landlord,

Edinburgh 28/08/2008 16:32:40
MB - I hate to break it to you but not everything follows predictions and cycles! Furthermore I do not rely on the property market for my bread and butter given the fact I am not involved with residential conveyancing or comm prop!

Sadly without 100% mortgages even if property prices do completely drop by 25% it will not provide the next generation of home buyers access to the market!
24

ccc,

28/08/2008 16:43:01
Landlord:

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/topstories/1100-finance-jobs-facing-axe.4423227.jp

"What are you talking about - there is no solicitor tag" - THE LANDLORD

"I work as a solicitor" - THE LANDLORD

Explain.

:)

25

The Landlord,

Edinburgh 28/08/2008 16:46:39
A solicitor is a lawyer so I work as a solicitor or as a lawyer - it is the same thing!

Dumb!
26

ccc,

28/08/2008 16:46:54
"House prices will always be over inflated CCC"

Jeez you are not the sharpest tool in the box are you ?

So what happened in 1998 for example ? When you could get a nice family house in Edinburgh for about 3-4 times the average salary, adn when interest rates were fairly low ? Have you just deleted that from history ?

My - you have some amazing powers Mr Landlord !!

As #21 explained this is the normal 18 year cycle. Although the resident expert in the matter, FOFP, believes this is actually far worse than the usual 18 year cycle, it is a 3 generational cycle. I am sure he will come on soon and let us know the score.
27

ccc,

28/08/2008 16:54:42
#25

So why did you say this:

"What are you talking about - there is no solicitor tag" - THE LANDLORD

So there is no solicitor tag - yet you work as a solicitor. Strange...

:)
28

The Landlord,

Edinburgh 28/08/2008 16:56:07
Ha ha ha ha - you are so funny!

I would love to know what area you are refering to when you say you could get a nice family house for 3 to 4 times your annual salary! I must warn you CCC I have access to the ESPC sales figures so I can go back and check - be warned as you may make an idiot out of yourself on this one!
29

FrankGallagher,

28/08/2008 17:03:54
28 The Landlord

Why do you bother with ccc, he is a total @ rse, infact thats an insult, as at least @ rses are useful. Seriously, stop justifying yourself to him.
30

ccc,

28/08/2008 17:09:35
LandLord.

"I would love to know what area you are refering to when you say you could get a nice family house for 3 to 4 times your annual salary"

In many places in Edinburgh you could get a semi decent home for about 100k before 2000. Average salaries were about 25k ish back then.

You have to remember back in 1999 you could get a one bed Gorgie flat for about 30-40k. Only about twice the average salary. Last summer it was up at about 125k, about 4-5 times the average salary.

If you want to talk about this stuff you should do a bit of reading up first.

All the info is out there. Report back here in a month and we can see how you have done.

Thanks
31

FC Barcelona,

28/08/2008 17:17:58
AVERAGE House prices in simple terms so everyone undertsands as published by Land Registry:

Edinburgh £221,209 QUARTER RISE= 6.3% ANNUAL RISE= 5.9%
Stirling £178,249 QUARTER DROP= 8.5% ANNUAL RISE 2.5%
Aberdeen £173,170 QUARTER RISE= 1.7% ANNUAL RISE= 4.7%
Glasgow £139,371 QUARTER RISE= 1.1% ANNUAL DROP= 1.5%
Dundee £125,910 QUARTER DROP= 4.3% ANNUAL RISE= 0.1%

Despite what the doomsayers in here are saying ..... Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Glasgow all saw last quarter house price rises, and Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Dundee and Stirling all saw annual rises, HOUSE SALES are down NOT house prices !!!!! FACTS here

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/regions/html/region12.stm
32

Lord_S,

Edinburgh 28/08/2008 17:21:11
Fine! House prices in Edinburgh will never fall. They'll boom forever and in a year a studio flat in Muirhouse will cost £450,000. We're all very wealthy here in Edinburgh, and don't need mortgages to buy. Investors will be snapping up trendy pads in Wester Hailes before the next upsurge in prices. BUY NOW BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE!
33

ccc,

28/08/2008 17:28:32
#31.

You should wait till the Registrars next figures are out. Likely to be serious negative numbers all round.

I will spell it out for you. Even though someone has already done it.

AVERAGE house prices are rising.
HOUSE PRICES are falling.

Comment #7 explains it perfectly. This is exactly what is happening in Edinburgh, just on a much larger scale. FFS even the Estate Agents are now saying this !!

"Andrew Smith, a partner at Strutt & Parker in Edinburgh, believes the healthy top end is masking drops in value at the lower end."
34

The Landlord,

Edinburgh 28/08/2008 17:33:14
Right then CCC my final comments before I departe for a meeting:

1. name me the area where you could get a decent home for £100K and I will check the archived prices; and
2. people earning the average at that point in time would not have been considering a 1 bed flat in Gorgie - think about it!.

Bye for now.
35

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

28/08/2008 17:35:20
#23: Correct. That's why falls will be larger than 25% on average.
36

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

28/08/2008 17:45:33
#33. It's well-known in the industry that the Land registry figures trail the rest of them, such as Halifax and Nationwide. They'll still be analysing January and February figures due to the nature of pre-signed transactions mentioned by another poster here.

On the other hand, the Land Registry figures are much more complete.
37

googler,

28/08/2008 17:59:51
#34 - he was talking about prices in 1998 or thereabouts - which will be freely available on OurProperty, myhouseprice, and nethouseprice, amongst other sites by now. Why do you need to look them up?
38

googler,

28/08/2008 18:08:11
"Michael Annan, property manager at Aikman Annan, which has three offices in the Capital, said:"

A new talking head in these parts, so - three offices, you say?

Not according to their website, they haven't....
39

ccc,

28/08/2008 19:21:43
#34. See #37.

These are widely available. I just did a check on the Halifax index. Results below for Scotland, they don't drill down to city detail but it gives you an idea:

Average price - Semi Detached = 60,845
Average price - Detached = 103,621

I am sure Edinburgh was a good bit more than this but you get the drift.

LANDLORD:

"2. people earning the average at that point in time would not have been considering a 1 bed flat in Gorgie - think about it!"

Yes you have worked it out at last. 10 years ago those on the average wage would have been able to look at somewhere a bit nicer if they wanted. Now the average person on the average wage has to scrimp and save just to get a hold of a poky wee flat.

You getting it yet ? AFFORDABILITY IS KEY !!

Not rocket science...

40

eDUCATIon,

28/08/2008 20:33:50
I remember the days when a pan loaf cost 1 and 6........
41

is it me?,

Edinburgh 28/08/2008 21:06:56
#40
...and folk said, "dinnae get married or a sixpenny pie will cost ye a shillin' ".
42

eDUCATIon,

28/08/2008 23:26:57
41

Im only mid thirties.....and Im talking b0llox :)


coz thats what these 2 are.....
43

The Landlord,

Edinburgh 29/08/2008 10:38:05
CCC - you are so thick it hurts!

Googler - the data in the ESPC archive is much better as it contains an accurate desciption of the property and its condition.

In 1998 the average salary may have been £20K when a 1 bed in Gorgie cost £40K but the people earing the average salary at that time would not have been looking for a 1 bed in Gorgie.

I agree that the cost of housing has gone up to a comfortable level however the simple point I made above (which you have failed to grasp) is that in Edinburgh the cost of housing has always been high in relation to salaries. If you look at the early 80's it was more proportionate.
44

duelay no more,

perth 29/08/2008 11:05:47
Ladies and gentlemen, can we please refrain from personal nit picking and name calling?

It's a serious subject which affects most people, no matter if you are an over committed investor, a potential skinnydipper, or just an interested onlooker.

Everyone needs somewhere to live, but at times we have to put up with conditions that we may not enjoy in order to wait for a suitable situation to emerge.

My advice for the "young" would-be home buyer, is to wait until the banks are again willing to lend...this would suggest that they have weighed to risk to reward equation, and believe they can make money from their transactions with you. Don't borrow more than 4 times you annual earnings, unless it includes a ticket to Australia.

In the meantime, bite the bullet and stay at home with Mum and Dad, or rent somewhere cheap, to save up some capital to use when the smoke clears.

Do not get yourself or anyone else pregnant, just to throw themselves on the steps of Social Security unless you want to wreck the lives of your children, as well as your own.

Haigumdoh.
45

Lord_S,

Edinburgh 29/08/2008 13:42:27
If a 1 bed flat in Gorgie cost roughly £40k then housing hasn't always been expensive in relation to salaries. It's as simple as that. You've just said it yourself.
46

edinburghiscommon,

05/09/2008 10:54:21
@ The Landlord - bet you changed your views now after the latest property report of the ESPC? Never under estimate the power of denial...

 

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