Don't bet against Salmond hitting Westminster target

After gaining 20 seats at last year's Holyrood elections sceptics are cautious to dismiss the Nationalist' latest aim, writes Ian Swanson.

WHEN Alex Salmond set the target of winning 20 extra seats in last year's Holyrood elections, even people inside the SNP were sceptical. Former Nationalist leader Gordon Wilson went as far as branding the idea "absurd".

But Mr Salmond was determined to prove his critics wrong and led his party to victory last May, increasing the party's tally of MSPs from 27 to 47.

And that stunning success means there is not the same rush to rubbish his latest target – increasing the SNP's contingent at Westminster from the present six seats to 20.

At first sight, it's a massive challenge. A Westminster election is always more difficult for the Nationalists because people see it as their chance to choose the next UK Prime Minister.

And although the SNP took second place in 20 constituencies at the last General Election in 2005, there were only three of these in which they were within 10,000 votes of the winner.

To get anywhere near Mr Salmond's target, the party will have to win seats where they finished third or even fourth last time. But SNP strategists believe the 20-seat target is achievable.

The strategists are not naming the seats they hope to win. But Edinburgh East is certain to feature near the top of the list. Although the SNP finished third there in the last Westminster election, Kenny MacAskill took the seat from Labour at the Scottish Parliament election, albeit on different boundaries.

And it has already chosen ex-Labour councillor George Kerevan, associate editor at The Scotsman, as its candidate. Labour's veteran MP Gavin Strang said he would stand down at the next election – after holding the seat since 1970 – but then announced he had changed his mind, almost certainly prompted in part by the fear of the seat going to the Nats. SNP number-crunchers have worked out from last year's council election results that they are just 672 votes behind Labour in the Westminster seat. Some Nats insiders believe Dr Strang may still bow out closer to the election, making it easier for them to win. West Lothian has always been promising territory for the SNP – but it was a promise never fulfilled in parliamentary terms until Angela Constance won Livingston from Labour at last year's Holyrood elections.

On paper, Linlithgow looked a better prospect for the Nats, but Labour managed to hold on there. Both seats are now likely to be considered for the SNP's target list for Westminster.

The 2005 Livingston by-election which followed Robin Cook's death saw the SNP cut Labour's majority but fail to win the seat. The Nationalists will need a swing of just over 4.5 per cent to take the seat.

Linlithgow, which is linked with East Falkirk for Westminster purposes, is a more challenging prospect, requiring a swing of more than 12 per cent.

One Labour insider readily admits the SNP could reach its 20-seat target. "They're in a very strong position – they can say what they have done in government and talk about the bad things Labour are doing."

The Nationalists took 17.66 per cent of the votes across Scotland in the 2005 General Election, compared with Labour's 38.87 per cent

Holyrood elections have always produced better results than Westminster ones. Last year they took 33 per cent of the constituency votes and 31 per cent of the list votes.

But Moray MP Angus Robertson, the party's campaign guru, believes attitudes have now changed.

He says: "We think a barrier has been broken down for a lot of voters who may in the past have questioned the advantage of voting SNP at a Westminster election. The feedback is telling us that and I think we have a tremendous opportunity.

"There are quite big swings necessary compared to the last Westminster elections, but we've had an election since then. We need to take what happened at the Scottish Parliament elections into consideration.

"People's impression on the ground is the SNP can win and they are good."

Mr Salmond announced his 20-seat target at the SNP spring conference at Heriot-Watt University last weekend, when he also held out the prospect that the party could hold the balance of power at Westminster after the next election.

The party has a ban on forming a coalition with the Tories, but Mr Salmond has said he could not see a deal to keep Labour in power if they had just been rejected by the electorate. And he declared his preference for dealing with a hung parliament on an issue by issue basis.

Mr Robertson says: "It's impossible to know what's going to happen at the next election. We're making no prediction on who's going to win."

He refuses to be drawn on whether he would prefer a Labour or Conservative win – although many believe a Tory victory would suit the SNP's purposes better, polarising the relationship between Scotland and England and potentially making independence more appealing.

But he says: "Regardless of which party wins, a strong SNP group at Westminster will be heard."