DOWNING Street was quick to dismiss the idea of minimum pricing on alcohol when it was floated by England's Chief Medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson earlier this week.
But the move, which had already been proposed by the SNP as part of its bid to tackle Scotland's drink problem, could still go ahead here.
The Scottish Government's plan would mean setting a minimum price per unit of alcohol – probably around 40p
– which would end the situation, frequently highlighted by Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill, where a two-litre bottle of strong white cider can be bought for less than a bottle of water.
The new minimum price would apply both in pubs and clubs and in supermarkets and off-licences. But customers at pubs and clubs would not pay any more because prices there are already well above the level being considered.
And the Government says the vast majority of off-sales customers would also see little difference because the policy is targeted at ultra-cheap booze.
Opposition parties at Holyrood have warned they will unite to defeat minimum pricing if ministers try to push it through as secondary legislation, with only a limited opportunity for debate, rather than following the full process of passing a new Bill. But insiders hint the Government could give way and agree to include the measure in the Criminal Justice and Licensing Bill.
"We're not going to get hung up on the process," says an SNP source.
Minimum pricing is supported by Scotland's police chiefs, the British Medical Association and the Scottish Licensed Trade Association.
And despite the UK Government's rejection of the policy, Labour in Scotland has not yet adopted an official line. "It's up to the Scottish group to decide our own policy in the Scottish Parliament, says justice spokesman Richard Baker.
He says he wants to see the detail of how the scheme will work – what the minimum price would be; how it would be enforced; and the implications of having different laws north and south of the Border.
"Whatever you think about the principle, the crucial thing will be how it works."
The Liberal Democrats' business manager, Mike Rumbles, says they will vote against minimum pricing. "We will not support the Government telling private industry what price they will sell their alcohol at," he insists.
But Lib Dem leaders south of the Border have spoken out strongly in support of Sir Liam Donaldson's call for minimum pricing – home affairs spokesman Chris Huhne going as far as saying it is "crassly irresponsible" for Labour and the Tories to dismiss the idea. Some Lib Dem MSPs have also voiced sympathy.
The Tories seem firmly opposed and the Greens say they are "sceptical", but the SNP
is adamant that moderate drinkers would hardly notice any change. "It is specifically targeted at ending the pocket money prices."
And one Labour MSP says: "The public doesn't understand why people should be able to buy strong cider at knock-down prices."
Other critics claim minimum pricing could damage Scotland's whisky industry. But the Government says the only whisky which could be hit by the policy would be supermarkets' own cut-price brands. And sources also dismiss fears of people crossing the Border to buy booze or logging on to the internet, insisting that the marginal effect on most prices would not make it worthwhile.
Professor Anne Ludbrook, of Aberdeen University's Health Economics Research Unit, says studies consistently show that putting prices up does reduce drinking. "The debate is only around the size of the effect."
But she also says drinks companies, most of whom are firmly against minimum pricing, could actually see profits rise if the policy is introduced.
She says: "If a minimum price of 30p per unit was introduced, then a product which is currently heavily discounted might experience up to a 30 per cent decrease in sales. However, industry revenue could actually increase by as much as 68 per cent because most of the price increase is retained by the industry." Prof Ludbrook also argues drinks companies could cut prices by lowering alcoholic strengths. "The average strength of alcoholic drinks has been increasing without apparently being noticed by consumers. A reversal of this trend could achieve lower alcohol consumption without higher prices on the product being purchased."
Sir Liam Donaldson recommended a 50p minimum price per unit in his report and said that could mean 3393 fewer deaths every year in England, as well as 97,900 fewer hospital admissions, 45,800 fewer crimes, 296,900 fewer sick days, and a total benefit of more than £1 billion.
With alcohol estimated to cost Scottish taxpayers £2.25bn a year and alcohol-related death rates having doubled in the last decade, opposition parties will have to have some strong arguments to show why this policy should not be given a chance.
