IF ALEX Salmond were to have his way, Scots would be going to the polls in less than 15 months to vote on independence. The Referendum Bill, paving the way for a plebiscite on St Andrew's Day, 30 November 2010, was the centrepiece of the SNP's legislative programme for the coming year presented to the Scottish Parliament yesterday.
But there is virtually no chance of the Bill ever making it to the statute book. Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives are all opposed to an independence referendum. Even Margo MacDonald is against it. Unless there is a change of heart by a
ny of the opposition parties, the minority SNP government will be able to count only on the support of the two Green MSPs.
The Nationalists insist an opposition U-turn on the position is not out of the question. They point to Labour's support for a referendum when Wendy Alexander was leader, Lib Dem leader Tavish Scott suggesting he is not opposed in principle to having a referendum and calls by the Tories' former Scottish secretary, Michael Forsyth, for a vote on independence on the same day as the general election. "Anything is possible," says one SNP insider.
But even if the referendum legislation is doomed before it has been published, that does not mean the Bill is pointless. From the SNP's point of view, putting the legislation before parliament will ensure the issue of independence remains firmly on the agenda.
Mr Salmond has indicated he is open to holding a multi-option referendum – if the opposition parties can come up with an alternative constitutional proposal.
That means increased pressure on Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Tories to agree some kind of package of more powers for Holyrood, presumably based on the recommendations of the Calman commission.
If they fail to come forward with their own scheme, it will look as if those opposed to independence cannot get their act together.
If they do come up with a "more powers" option, they will then have to explain why they are not prepared to put it to the people.
If there were to be a referendum, the chances are the independence option would be defeated – but the very fact there had been such a vote would set the precedent for another at some future date.
The SNP's chosen date for a referendum falls after the next UK general election – and if there is a Tory government at Westminster, that could boost support for independence here.
Then, if the opposition parties do block the proposed plebiscite, the SNP can fight the 2011 Holyrood election, saying the other three main parties refused to let the people have their say on the future.
However, depending on the state of the economy by then, voters might be more concerned about their jobs and mortgages and conclude that independence is an irrelevance.
Indeed, the opposition argued yesterday that the SNP's decision to bring forward the Referendum Bill showed the government has its priorities wrong. Scottish Labour leader Iain Gray recalled that the flagship of last year's legislative programme was a Bill to abolish council tax and introduce a Local Income Tax.
The SNP later announced it was abandoning the policy because it recognised there was not majority support for it in parliament. So Mr Gray said the government's legislative programme should be taken with a pinch of salt.
He described the Referendum Bill as "a flagship begging to be scuttled".
He said: "It starts with even less support than the late unlamented Council Tax Bill of last year, and the First Minister's coy hints about multi-options are game- playing when he should be governing."
Labour frontbencher Pauline McNeill argued people were more concerned about the rights of disabled people, better housing, hospital cleanliness and knife crime than the constitution.
She said there had been no increase in support for independence despite the SNP's National Conversation. Labour argued the legislative programme should have included minimum sentences for knife crime, wage and training subsidies and new measures to protect children at risk of abuse.
Mr Gray did say there were issues – and he named the Alcohol Bill – where the party is ready to "look for consensus".
The Tories and Lib Dems still seem firmly opposed to minimum pricing, but the softening of Labour's stance means the controversial plans for tackling alcohol misuse are likely to be passed, albeit with some amendments.
The referendum plans will become the political battleground for the next 12 months – even if everyone already knows how the fight will end.
