Ian Swanson: A long way down road to independence

IT had the birthday cake last week – but tomorrow the SNP will celebrate its 75th anniversary all over again. The first resolution on the agenda for the party's two-day spring conference in Glasgow pays tribute to "those who have fought for national independence" since 1934, reaffirms the independence vision and "looks forward to delivering that promise".

It's a safe bet there won't be a queue of delegates wanting to speak against the motion.

And the SNP has reason to be pleased with itself. After decades of campaigning and repeated disappointments, the party's victory in the 2007 Holyrood elections catapulted it into government for the first time. Alex Salmond and his colleagues surprised and impressed with their quick and efficient adjustment to being in power.

And they can point to popular policies they have delivered over the past two years – scrapping bridge tolls, abolishing graduate endowment fees, phasing out prescription charges and freezing the council tax.

But opposition parties believe the Nationalists are now starting to flounder. The abandonment of the flagship Local Income Tax policy, the watering down of the Scottish Futures Trust and the lack of progress in cutting class sizes point to serious problems in fulfilling manifesto pledges.

The agenda for this weekend's conference carefully avoids most of these issues. Instead, delegates will discuss a wide range of topics: opposing plans for a Team GB football squad for the 2012 Olympics, demanding borrowing powers for Holyrood, urging a loyalty points scheme for buying Scottish food, attacking the UK Government over the economy, with resolutions on renewable energy, children's health and part-privatisation of the Post Office scattered between.

But most party conferences nowadays are more about rallying the troops, getting some free TV air time and generating income from exhibitors than debating contentious issues.

In addition to the opening resolution on the 75th anniversary, there will also be a poignant link to the party's foundations in the tributes which will be paid to Sir Neil MacCormick, the former SNP Euro MP and Edinburgh University law professor, who died last week.

His father, the legendary John MacCormick, helped bring about the 1934 merger of the Scottish Party and the National Party of Scotland to form the SNP and is still an inspirational figure for the Nationalists.

Winnie Ewing – who cut the birthday cake last week – put the SNP firmly on the political map with her Hamilton by-election victory in 1967 and the party hit its highest point at Westminster with 11 MPs elected in October 1974.

But the following years saw many frustrations and disappointments until the party's 2007 Holyrood breakthrough, which changed Scottish politics for good by ending Labour's dominance.

The very fact of being in power also brought about a transformation in party discipline. The first eight years of devolution had seen much sniping and internal warfare in the Nationalist camp. And not all the SNP's new MSPs in 2007 were what might be called leadership loyalists. But there has been a remarkable absence of dissent since the election.

Potential rebels know that as a minority government, the SNP must remain united or risk defeat – and few activists would forgive anyone responsible for that.

However, one insider says party bosses cannot expect this enforced unity to carry on for ever and predicts the half-way mark of the government's period in office could prove a "catalyst".

"After that, things could start to change. All governments have a natural cycle. The third year is bound to be different from years one and two."

And the party's unexpected failure to win the Glenrothes by-election last November was a salutary reminder of how things can go wrong.

"Glenrothes knocked the stuffing out of a few things. Up till then, there was an assumption we could walk on water."

The insider points out that before the end of next year the party will have to embark on its regional rankings for the 2011 Holyrood elections – effectively deciding who will get back as MSPs from the top-up lists.

This is the process which in the past led Margo MacDonald to quit and become an independent and also condemned Mike Russell – now back as Minister for the Constitution – to four years out of parliament.

Another SNP source says Minister for Parliamentary Business Bruce Crawford and chief whip Brian Adam are already being kept busy trying to keep people on board.

"Group meetings last just 20-25 minutes. People are not rocking the boat.

"But there is a lot of work being done internally to keep people in line – taking people aside having a chat with them."

The SNP remains a disparate group with political views ranging across the political spectrum, united by a declared belief in the need for independence.

It has come a long way in 75 years and now believes it is closer than ever to achieving its independence goal.

Mr Salmond said right from the start that his objective was to prove the SNP could be a success in government and persuade people to go that extra step.

But if problems for the government lead to dissent in the party, that loss of unity could do serious damage to the Nationalists' ambitions.