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Crisis, what crisis? The number of homes up for sale is soaring



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Published Date: 19 April 2008
MORE homes have been put on the market in the Capital so far this year than by this time in 2007, despite growing fears over the credit crunch.
New figures by a group of the Capital's leading estate agents have revealed the number of homes put up for sale between January and March is up 14 per cent compared to the first quarter of 2007.

The five agents that make up the Edinburgh and Lothi
ans Property Guide said the number of houses being sold in the period was also up on last year.

While they admit first-time buyers have found it difficult since 100 per cent mortgages dried up, they say an increase in buy-to-let investors is keeping the market moving.

Between January and March 2008, the five firms saw 1243 properties put on the market, compared to only 1089 last year.

Steve Spence, a senior partner at estate agent Neilson's, said: "We have history on our side. I've been in the business for 30 years and I've never seen prices go down.

"The last time there were problems, around 1989-93, property went through the floor in England but there were not the same problems here – we just levelled off.

"If there is a weakness in the market it is first-time buyers. The lack of a 100 per cent mortgage is a big problem but they haven't always been readily available in the past either.

"People who don't have access to deposits will be forced to rent and that creates a hole in the market. But it is filled by buy-to-let buyers who know there is increased demand for rental property."

He said Neilson's had sold 44 properties in the past four weeks alone, which he said was a strong figure for this time of the year.

Andrew Kelso, a 34-year-old doctor, put his one-bedroom flat in Bonnington on the market for offers over £130,000 two weeks ago and has already given viewings to ten people, two of whom put in notes of interest.

He said he was confident he would get a good price for the flat, which he bought for £100,000 five years ago.

"If I wasn't to get the price I wanted I would just take it off the market," he said. "I've been keeping half an eye on the ESPC and houses are coming and going quite quickly.

"There still seems to be plenty of people wanting to buy."

Leslie Deans, owner of Leslie Deans & Co, said that the demand for moving to Edinburgh was continuing to fuel the market.

He said: "Whether it's a promotion, a blossoming relationship, a baby on the way or children leaving home, life ensures there are always reasons to buy or sell your home. This is different from the position down south where people tend to buy for lifestyle reasons – where people want to live in the new top area or trade up to show off to their friends.

"That's why, where people have done that, and taken out big mortgages, there is so much concern south of the border.

"Ultimately, people keep buying in Edinburgh because it's a great city and offers a unique property market.

"It is not subject to the fluctuations or insecurities of other UK cities."





The full article contains 564 words and appears in Edinburgh Evening News newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

  • Last Updated: 19 April 2008 10:27 AM
  • Source: Edinburgh Evening News
  • Location: Edinburgh
 
1

Jeff, Surrey,

19/04/2008 11:56:30
Anyone who believes Scotland's house prices will not plummet over the next few years is in cloud cuckoo land...

Expect England's house prices to drop on average 40%+ over the next 2-4 years with Scotland a few months behind.

Some properties in Manchester and elsewhere have already dropped 40% - Expect plenty of bog standard houses/flats to drop 60%+

We are in a far worse position that the US but the vested interests (estage agents/govt/banks ets) are trying to keep the UK population ignorant of the real facts.

Sell now and buy in 5-7 years, if you are a speculator. Otherwise sit tight over these years before you can expect house prices to reach the levels we are at now again.
2

AdamKC666,

Edinburgh 19/04/2008 11:59:40
Um...maybe there are lots of houses up for sale cos the current owners can't afford their mortgage.
3

Hmm ...,

19/04/2008 12:44:25
... Sorry Jeff (1) - Edinburgh prices have not previously fallen, even in the last big English plunge in 1989. (I was selling my sister's flat at the time and selling was just difficult here. I also saw the collapse in England because my employer was a big lender which took a cold as a result).

There are two explanations-
1. We don't have "chains" here, where a whole string of sales can collapse because one buyer calls off as happens in England. Here an accepted offer is binding.
2. We have also not seen the huge buying frenzies where house prices lose touch with reality, that were habitual in the south of England. Perhaps Scots are more careful with their money, perhaps they just don't have as much of it.

But that has all changed - we have had huge numbers of people moving up from the south of England particularly, and our house prices have soared as they invested the equity from their Home Counties house.

So if a sale fails, the buyer can be sued for the price or for the shortfall that the eventual sale makes. The downside is if the buyer doesn't actually have the money to make good his bid.

So we could have a fall this time - but it hasn't happened yet. One of the mainstays of the Scottish system is that the solicitors enforce it as part of their service to either buyer or seller. That could fail too.
4

Random,

19/04/2008 12:48:21
The reason everyone in the capital are selling up is because, streets that used to be lovely quiet area's are now over run by houses bought by private landlords and let out to DHSS families who then terrorise there new neighbours and force them out the street, trust me iv seen it happening to a family member, 6 houses in same street went up for sale because of this.
5

Hmm ...,

19/04/2008 12:57:25
... you mean, Random (4), that it isn't because of the cost and upheaval of the trams, school closures, the poor state of Edinburgh's roads, the perverse speed bumps, the unnecessary bus lanes intended to create congestion and the draconian traffic restrictions that Labour saw as "improvements"?

Or is it all the same problem - that these landlords bought the houses because others left due to the above?
6

,

19/04/2008 13:04:04
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
7

Padraig,

19/04/2008 13:15:19
AdamKC says "maybe there are lots of houses up for sale cos the current owners can't afford their mortgage" - or maybe growing numbers of houses are on the market because sales are drying up? (This isn't the same as prices falling - it just makes selling more difficult).
8

Padraig,

19/04/2008 13:19:20
Sorry Mario - taxing home owners (rather than investors in second and "for let" houses) would have the problem that every time anyone had to move house, they would have to move downmarket because they would have less equity to put in. It would also kill moving to a larger house as the kids came along.

It isn't that this tax-hungry Labour government hasn't thought about it, or even that it doesn't want to do it (Gordon loves "redistributing" people's hard earned cash) it is this impracticality that gets in the way.
9

Dileas,

19/04/2008 13:28:29
Yeah (9) - and second home and "buy to let" owners are taxed at 40% on ANY profit on resale of the house.
10

me150,

19/04/2008 13:33:57
The credit crunch etc has nothing to do with the number of houses for sale but a lot to do with the number of houses sold.
11

parks is colin nish,

cape town 19/04/2008 14:14:30
#10, 40% dont think so
perhaps check your facts first
12

Plodjfriss, Hammer of the Numpties,

Edinburgh 19/04/2008 14:50:18
Give us a break. Day after day after day after day we get "experts" whose business just happens to be selling houses insisting that there's not the slightest possibility of price falls. Why? Why do we have to listen to this? If the market's so strong then why do they have to publish these soothing stories every few days?
13

ccc,

19/04/2008 15:17:21
I am always amazed at the lowering of the levels this paper will go to. It is actually quite incredible.

More houses up for sale is good news for EA's and people wanting their property to keep its value ?!!

What planet are these people on. For years we have been told the lie that this bubble was due to 'demand and supply'. Now it is popping - supply amazingly re-appears, as if by magic. Exactly as predicted by people like myself who actually have a brain.

So why don't the same people who have been telling us "House prices have gone up due to demand and supply" change their tune to "House prices are going down due to demand and supply"

Oh yes it's not in their best selfish interests to do so.
14

ccc,

19/04/2008 15:19:46
#3. "Inflation and its effects on values and prices." You may want to look this up before spouting the propaganda "Edinburgh house prices have never fallen"..

I am always amazed how little the general public actually know about economics.
15

antifa,

19/04/2008 16:31:39
ccc - it is supply that meets demand, not the other way round. So an increase in supply suggests the expectation of demand (the wish and the ability to pay)holding up at least.

Whether this expectation is rational or not is another question. I'm concerned by quotes like this (from the article):

"down south people tend to buy for lifestyle reasons – where people want to live in the new top area or trade up to show off to their friends."

Yes, it's just like Four Weddings down there you know.

If it's this type of thinking that leads "experts" to conclude Edinburgh prices can't go down, then god help us.
16

,

19/04/2008 17:02:24
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
17

ccc,

19/04/2008 18:21:02
#16. Yes I do agree that all the 'arguments' for house prices not falling here are extremely weak to say the least.

#17. You clearly have a large mortgage and are concerned about negative equity. Why don't you just replace the word 'Guff' with 'What I desperately do not want to hear because deep down I know it is true'. :)

And as for my 'guff' yesterday I notice you didn't bother arguing my points. That is because you know I am right. Just accept what is coming. It is overdue and will be A GOOD THING for the majority of people. Of course there will be losers but that will always happen.

Again I will repeat my point:

228
222
215
210

Anyone can show me how that is NOT FALLING and you can have 10k. Serious.

I seem to have a strange lack of interest.... ;)

Money for nothing considering prices HAVE NEVE FALLEN IN EDINBURGH.

Well here is a wake up call - they are falling right now !!! Get used to it.

18

Black Five,

edinburgh 19/04/2008 18:33:42
Deans talks a load of proverbial crap.No credit crunch here.What planet is this man on.He`s trying to talk up his failing business as he tried to talk up the failing Hearts.
19

gus1940,

Edinburgh 19/04/2008 19:08:05
#4

Well said.

It's about time The EEN did some proper investigative journalism and had a good look at the effect the council's crazy scheme of dumping undesirables in previously peaceful areas where they terrorise the other residents.
20

Sassenach Observer,

Edinburgh 19/04/2008 19:34:18
"Steve Spence, a senior partner at estate agent Neilson's, said: "We have history on our side. I've been in the business for 30 years and I've never seen prices go down."

Hmmm. Presumably it's only investments in anything other than Edinburgh property where the value of your investment can go down as well as up then ? I'm surprised that anybody bothers with ISAs, savings accounts etc etc if Edinburgh property is such an absolute cert. In fact, it makes me wonder why those financial wizards down at Standard Life didn't put all their money into Edinburgh property and maybe my endowment policy wouldn't be in the red.

A quick check of ourproperty.co.uk suggests that house prices in my area almost doubled in the four years from 2001 - 2005 which rather suggests that Edinburgh was in the forefront of "silly" house prices and thus is likely to be affected just as much as similar areas in England.

"Ultimately, people keep buying in Edinburgh because it's a great city and offers a unique property market.

"It is not subject to the fluctuations or insecurities of other UK cities."

Really ? Same lenders, same interest rates, same economy etc etc. How exactly is Edinburgh any different to anywhere else in the UK ? What a lot of rot !



21

Teofilio Cubillas,

19/04/2008 19:55:45
Tax second homes to the hilt. There are social changes that have driven up demand for property, but speculators investing in buy to let properties and Daddies buying Tarquin and Annabel flats in Marchmont while they do their pointless Art degrees has made access to decent housing impossible for young Edinburghers. I bought my first flat in 1986 off the top of Leith Walk it cost £15000 - about 1.5 times my salary at that time. That same flat is now about £90,000 meaning that a 20 year old would have to be earning £60,000 PA to be in the same position as I was. Even allowing for differences in interest rates between then and now they're in an impossible position.
22

Inside track,

Homeless 20/04/2008 00:18:54
I used to compile the house price index for the UK and work as an economist within a Bank. Although I have a vested interest I have integrity so I like to think I wouldn’t talk up prices up if I thought they were about to collapse. While I don’t have crystal b&lls between my legs I like to think I speak from a position of some authority, at least on this issue.
#1...... On what basis are the economic conditions in the UK ripe for a nationwide house price collapse. Stable affordability/rising demand for housing stock/benign economic conditions/and increased household formation provide the basis for demand to remain firm even if economic growth falls back. Coupled to weak planning decisions and a nationwide shortage in the delivery of new housing that restrict supply and keep land values high there is no chance we will experience US style problems.
The US situation was partly a product of financially suicidal lending criteria that meant unemployed ex-cons with no deposit could secure a large mortgage. I haven’t heard of similar stories in the UK. The default rates on UK mortgages is also far less and is rising at a lower rate than in the US so trite comparisons shouldn’t be made.
While certain locations in Scotland and certain sectors ie new build "ford mondeo" apartments will see downward adjustment the overall market should see limited falls. The right product in the right area will always do well!!! Unfortunately in a rising market people are forced to overpay for tertiary housing in weaker less desirable locations but we will not see a huge re-alignment.
EEN please don’t let ill-informed market commentators of no particular worth guide the journalistic content of your newspaper. Real house prices did fall in Edinburgh during the early 1990s!!! With Retail Price Inflation running at c.10% in the early 90s and accompanied by negligible property price inflation meant there was a negative wealth effect for those with equity tied up in houses. So for anyon
23

rabmataz,

20/04/2008 01:36:22
ha ha ha, reposession reposession reposession; serves you all right
24

techpunk,

20/04/2008 09:08:30
prices for "first time buyer" flats in edinburgh will almost certainly hold their price, due to large demand. there may be an increase in properties entering the sale market a rung or two above that property group,and i guess a few of those sellers will be looking to downgrade, due to overstretching credit, but this will not be the norm.

i feel that edinburgh will continue to "buck the trend". in the long term (possibly very long term!), i really dont see why edinburgh property prices shouldnt compete with london prices. it's possibly the best city in the uk to work/ sudy/ live, so why not?
25

Johnnie Wilkinson,

Edinburgh 20/04/2008 11:26:04
I've already noticed flats in Gorgie where the prices are about the same as just before the credit crunch, but the "For the Sale" signs go up, but never seem to come down.....Perhaps because FTBs can no longer borrow these insane income multiples and 100% + mortgages. Flat prices in Edinburgh are at least 30% overvalued and must come down.
26

ccc,

20/04/2008 12:47:56
#23. I am impressed. At least there is one other preson out there who understands the effects of inflation on house prices/values !!

#25 Why don't you read the reply from #26. It does not matter if people WANT to buy a certain flat. If the bank will not lend them the money they will not get it. How many people do you know that would love to have a 125k Ferrari ? Probably quite a lot. Why don't they all go out and just get one then....

THINK ABOUT IT !!!

As for the ridiculous drivel from Darling etc.. about 'Getting the lending business back to normal'. Never heard such nonsense in my entire life. What is happening now is IT IS GETTING BACK TO NORMAL. Sensible levels of lending to only those who can afford it. What has happened in the last 10 years HAS BEEN ABNORMAL. How so many people cannot see this astounds me.
27

techpunk,

20/04/2008 13:37:23
simplest of economics: supply is constant (i dont foresee a crash here, with rakes of property for sale suddenly saturating the lower end of the market), so unless there is a huge decline in demand (which you know fine well there will not be) price will fix. furthermore, if anything, demand will grow, due to the popularity of edinburgh, and the ability of "ferrari drivers" to take up on the market.

and your comments re banks being unwilling to lend is tosh: just been offered nearly 5x salary for a mortgage.....or maybe I JUST THOUGHT ABOUT IT!

28

ccc,

20/04/2008 15:06:16
"Supply is constant" - So you not seen those 10k plus properties that are under construction at Granton then...

You are pleased you have just been offered a mortgage 5 times your salary !!?? Jeez you don't get it do you. Banks used the 3.5 times salary calculation successfully for decades. There was a simple reason for this....

Anyway if you have managed to get a 5 times salary mortgage I am sure the rate will be rather less than pleasing. :)
29

techpunk,

20/04/2008 15:25:22
what a smarmy person you are!

1) you have not taken in the point of my posts: they refer to the lower end of the market (completely stable), not these over-inflated new builds, as you mentioned, at granton, for example.

2) i am neither pleased or displeased that i have been offered a 5x mortgage. my comment was there to debunk your earler comment about raising capital and i won't stand corrected on that.

3) the rate at 6.3% is pretty good actually. when i bought my first flat, rates were over 15%.

away 'n' bile yer heed.....you haven't the first clue.
30

techpunk,

20/04/2008 15:27:26
or are you just miffed, cos your stretched to the limit on your credit cards, cant save because of your lush lifestyle, and see the dream of home ownership float away, because you are not "savvy".
31

techpunk,

20/04/2008 15:47:16
are you

THINKING ABOUT IT!!!
32

ccc,

20/04/2008 16:46:10
Dear, Dear techpunk. You will find out the truth in good time. I am simply trying to help you.

I could 'own' a house tomorrow. Thing is I understand that I would not actually own the entire house. I also understand that paying huge amounts of interest is not a good thing if you can avoid it. I also know that the cost of buying a home is likely to drop in the next few years.

For your information I have zero debt. I have 10's of thousands in savings. I am just being smart with my money. Unlike the majority who have little clue.
33

techpunk,

20/04/2008 17:05:35
for your information, i also have tens of thousands in cash, bonds, shares. and i know how to work them.

i also have zero debt.

i have also been a property owner in edinburgh for two decades.
i also have work in the property: have done for 20 years, the last six years being in one of the top three global all-rounders.

you on the other hand, reek of sour grapes, and are wrong in your assumptions, as far as edinburgh's potential.

woohoo!
get it up ye!

i dont actually need your help, sonny/ missy.

you are wrong.
34

ccc,

20/04/2008 17:14:45
So you have zero debt and you have just applied for a 5 times salary mortgage..........

So what is it to be..........

You are going to get stung so bad. It really is quite sad. I will repeat the facts for you. Seeing as you constantly fail to respond to these.


228
222
215
210

What is that telling you about 'Edinburgh's potential' in property. :)
35

techpunk,

20/04/2008 17:29:35
thinking of ranking up to a more expensive property: thats why i know the lenders are still willing to contract(do you really think that anyone with savvy would take 5x salary, you joogle?).

i dont have to defend myself to to a scaremonger recipient like you, for gods sake!

i simply know the market: i live and work in it...by all counts, you do neither.

unsure about what those figureds mean? and what they have to do with the edinburgh property market dumbfounds me

...so i will add my own, which may at least mean some sense to some people:

3.14
42
11
-273.15

absolutely clueless, aren't you?



get on the property ladder in edinburgh, then maybe we can talk on a level pegging.

in the meantime, away and speculate on the ferrari market.....you seam to have a grasp of that!
36

ccc,

20/04/2008 18:04:45
When posting figures it is usually quite useful to pint out what they are referring to...............

Why would I want to get onto a 'ladder' anyway ? Some of us can see the brainwashing that goes on and are doing the opposite of what we are 'told to do'. You should take heed. I will decide to get on the 'ladder' when it is the right time. This time is probably the worst time in the last 20 years.
37

techpunk,

20/04/2008 18:06:50
have you got dreadlocks?

what do your posted figures mean?

will you be bitter for the rest of your life?
38

ccc,

20/04/2008 18:27:12
(1). No. You are clearly assuming I am certain type of person. You could not be further from the truth. In my line of work I deal with senior people at one of the UK's largest financial organisations on a daily basis. That is a bit of a surprise to you isn't it.............:)

(2)My posted figures have been explained on the other stories I have commented on. I have no problem repeating them though:

These are the average sale prices according to ESPC in Edinburgh for the last 4 quarters. Prices in Edinburgh ARE FALLING RIGHT NOW. Of course this is not being advertised very widely. That is not a surprise given most people's desperation for prices to remain ridiculously high. That fact high property prices only benefit a tiny proportion of the population does not seem to be understood by many.

(3) I am not bitter, far from it. I simply would like to see a situation in this country where the average person can afford to buy the average house without having a huge amount of debt attached. In case you haven't noticed the banks have been one of the major winners in this 10 year 'boom'. Now it is turning they are the ones begging the Government to help them. It is quite frankly a disgusting situation. If you are happy with it then fine. You clearly don't give much thought to where your taxes go....

My plan is to buy a place one day without a mortgage, or with a very small mortgage that I will pay off over a couple of years. I do not want to pay hundreds of thousands in interest to a bank simply because it is what 'everyone else does'. You have clearly done this yourself. If you are happy with that then fine. I however would rather keep my money to myself. :)
39

Angry Rob,

Edinburgh 20/04/2008 20:24:13
This article is the last straw! I writing that letter to the Press Complaints Commission....

Who is paying for these advertising features?
40

Liz,

Edinburgh 20/04/2008 21:03:51
#41
I think I may join you on this one. This is a disgraceful "article" and makes a mockery of this "news"paper.

"It (Edinburgh) is not subject to the fluctuations or insecurities of other UK cities."

YES IT IS - we see today that RBS has lost £5 billion they are not going to be so keen to lend so much money for such overpriced property any more.
Just because prices here have not dropped before does not mean they will not in the future - Edinburgh/Scotland has never seen such inflated prices before.
Many people said that the Titanic was unsinkable but the iceberg it hit was big enough. The current credit crisis could well be big enough to sink the stupidly inflated property prices the entire UK has.
And going back to the article - maybe there are so many houses for sale as the "owners" are trying to cash in before they loose too much value. All this excess supply in the system and reduced demand as fewer people can get mortgages the old "supply and demand" argument for ever increasing prices goes out of the window.
41

Liz,

Edinburgh 20/04/2008 21:04:21
sorry that should have been referring to #40
silly me.... ;)
42

Angry Rob,

Edinburgh (exempt from all Economic theory) 20/04/2008 21:42:31
I can’t even be bother dissecting this article. I really can’t.

This is becoming a daily occurrence in this newspaper. The other day they expected us to swallow the story about the students camping outside to buy Springside flats. Did it work? Was anyone panicked into snapping up one or two? Then there was the one about rents shooting up, presumably to panic people into buying before their rental bills became too expensive. Then there was the one about Edinburgh bucking the trend.

Looks like people are ignoring that call not to panic and are selling up. I guess that they don’t read this newspaper.
43

Julian,

EDINBURGH 21/04/2008 01:37:12
ccc,

Sorry mate, but that constant 4 figure mantra you put out is either wrong or the ESPC are saying 2 totally different things. Here's the quote direct from their website:-

"A rise of just 1.2% took the average price in the Capital from £207,669 in the first quarter of 2007 to £210,123 during the first three months of 2008."

So the only one of your 4 figures that is correct is the last one. Doesn't much look like plummeting house prices to me.
44

Bertie The Bat,

Edinburgh 21/04/2008 06:06:20
Weather's rather cold for the time of year.
45

Iain fae Elgin,

21/04/2008 07:32:02
Better wrap up warm then.
46

ccc,

21/04/2008 08:51:05
#44. You have been sucked in by their nonsense !! Rise above it !!!

Simple. They use the year on year figure to compare prices. So compared to a year ago prices are up 1.2%. Compared to 11 months ago however they are down about 7%.

I personally am more bothered about what is HAPPENING NOW rather than what happened a year ago.

Investigate the figures yourself rather than just swallowing what they tell you. Go to the bottom of the page that you got the quote from and have a look at the actual numbers ;).

This July will see Edinburgh having YOY house price falls for the first time ever. I have been saying this for ages now. Come July everyone will suddenly be saying it. Don't say I didn't warn you. :)
47

PT,

UK 21/04/2008 17:13:01
Having a mid-forties crisis techpunk? I'm guessing that's your age.
48

Julian,

EDINBURGH 21/04/2008 22:06:07
ccc,

There's nothing on the bottom of the page. Go check it out yourself.

"http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/Content.aspx?pid=412"

If you want to uphold your 4 figure mantra go give us the link to the page you got it from.

But I don't understand what you are saying. Unless ESPC are lying, their quote means that the average of all houses sold in the first quarter of 2008 was 207k and the average in the last quarter was 210k. There's nothing ambiguous there.

As for what you are saying; that they are comparing 12 months as opposed to your 11 months well, I'd rather have a 12 month figure than an 11 month one, as the latter can be subject to monthly variations.
49

Julian,

EDINBURGH 21/04/2008 22:07:30
ccc,

Sorry, I should have said the average in the first quarter of 2008 was 210k.
50

ccc,

22/04/2008 09:16:40
Julian

Link is below:

http://www.espc.com/UniversalPages/MediaRoom.html

All the figures you need are at the bottom. The ESPC cherry pick them for their 'headlines'. They will have trouble getting any positive figures come July 8th :)

And yes if you want to compare 12 months that is fine. But looking at what has happened over the last 9 months gives you a far better impression of what is really happening. Put the average sales figures for the last 3 years on an excel spreadsheet graph. Then you will see what I am taling about. :)
51

Incandescent,

30/10/2008 01:08:33
CCC

These fora are not intended for PR purposes. Whatever your vested interest, please give it a rest as it's just irritating. Alternatively, at least try and post on non-property stories a bit more so you don't appear such an obvious plant.

 

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