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Monday, 2nd November 2009 Change Date Latest Issue

Jeremy Beadles: Booze pricing idea leaves a bitter taste

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Published Date: 06 March 2009
IT HAS been a strange week. In America, the Prime Minister urged President Obama to seize the moment and lead an international effort to deliver economic change, and yet in Scotland, the Government has just announced plans to effectively introduce a new tax for all.
That is the reality of a minimum price for alcohol, the centrepiece of a so-called "Framework for Action" to change Scotland's relationship with alcohol.

It sounds simple doesn't it: Put the price up and people drink less, while those currently d
rinking too much will be turned off because they can't afford it. Everyone will benefit.

I doubt it. The Scottish Government's plans on minimum price and banning promotions threaten to put prices up for all, diminish consumer choice and fail to achieve their objective.

Opposition politicians are starting to realise that far from being a bold assault on the serious damage wrought by alcohol misuse, Ministers are confusing being tough with having a serious plan.

There are legal issues of course. It's worth noting that even now, nine months since suggestions of minimum pricing first emerged in Scotland, the Government has not published details of how it intends to satisfy competition law, and specifically the UK's obligations under the European Competition Treaty.

Kenny MacAskill continues to claim that the Government is confident of both parliamentary and legal approval. If there's so much confidence then why not spell out the means and the rate you're planning to set the price at?

Ministers talk tentatively about a 40 pence per unit starting point, stressing without a hint of irony, that their intention is to hit the products most frequently associated with alcohol misuse.

Perhaps it's time to move the brain out of neutral. The whole point of a minimum price is that it affects every single product across every category, not specific products.

Once established, politicians will have the power to change the price at will.

The loudest voices in the health lobby are advocating a minimum price of anything from 50 pence to 80 pence per unit. That would put an average bottle of wine at anything from £5 to £8 – maybe not too much for a health professional or even, dare I say it, a politician, but a significant dent in the average family's shopping bill.

If, after a few months, minimum pricing was not considered to be achieving its objective, would politicians abandon it or simply raise the price?

Those hardest hit by a rise in alcohol prices are likely to be the demographic this Government most frequently claims to defend – those on low incomes and pensioners on fixed incomes. The ones who really do have an alcohol problem will sacrifice something else to keep on drinking.

The ban on promotion will also do little to change the habits of the problem few. The Government has already imposed significant burdens on the industry in the form of the revised licensing regulations due to come into force from 1 September 2009, including all alcohol retailers having to reapply for their licence, agree and comply with new siting regulations which have in some cases required major refits, specific staff training, and the application for all stores of a personal licence.

These conditions have created extensive costs, both financial and resource driven, in order to complete the reapplication process.

Then there's the age issue. Not proceeding with the 21 age requirement for off-sales as a national policy opens the door to fresh chaos and confusion. A 20-year-old will face an impossible situation, not knowing from town to town whether a particular licensing board has banned sales to under-21s or not.

Taken as a whole, the Scottish Government's policy sends a strange and, in my view, counter-productive message.

It says that alcohol is bad for all when most of us know that it's a pleasure. It says that if you're under 21 alcohol is forbidden fruit rather than something to be enjoyed in moderation. It says that if you have a car you might choose to head south to buy what you want.

Yes, the practical aspects of these proposals are seriously wanting.

The Scottish Government has downplayed the significance of internet and cross-border trade, yet many believe it will have a serious impact on Scottish businesses, as the experience in the Republic of Ireland suggests.

Having significantly raised their taxes people have been heading in droves to shop north of the border, taking their grocery business out of the country as well. Retail Excellence Ireland chief executive David Fitzsimons said: "Things haven't gone downhill, things are catastrophic."

There's another dimension too. The problem, as demonstrated in Sweden, of a massive increase in home brewing, which not only undermines the local economy but also leads to potentially fatal concoctions.

When looking across the EU there is clearly no established pattern between prices, consumption and misuse. In most of the countries with the lowest tax rates and prices for alcohol, consumption is also amongst the lowest.

Where are the proposals on education which might start to challenge people's perception of alcohol and encourage the responsible attitude we all want to see?

Where are the proposals to put more emphasis on enforcement – the very work that played such a significant role in curbing alcohol misuse in the pilot programmes frequently cited by the Scottish Government as evidence of an effective approach?

Instead, we have Scottish Ministers claiming to look after hard-pressed businesses and consumers while promoting policies that will do the opposite and fail to curb alcohol misuse. Scotland deserves better.

Jeremy Beadles is chief executive of the Wine and Spirit Trade Association.




Page 1 of 1

  • Last Updated: 06 March 2009 9:24 AM
  • Source: Edinburgh Evening News
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Related Topics: Alcohol & binge drinking
 
1

english charlie,

06/03/2009 10:47:58
Reducing peoples enjoyment. Sounds like a Jeremy Beadle prank.
2

DaveA,

Forfarshire 06/03/2009 11:31:22
I see the Scottish Nanny Party are in full flow. I understand that brewing your own beer works out at 25p a pint. Also while I am in Belgium stocking up on my half price cigarettes a case or ten of beer is the order of the day. Also if you look at Sweden which has a highly taxed and regulated alcohol policy, what are the effects? Will beer and wine become the new crack cocaine?

"Police: Swedish teens offering sex for booze...Police in the capital have noted that teenagers are more likely than ever before to offer sexual services to people who agree to buy alcohol for them."

"Truck driver smuggles 4,500 litres of alcohol into Sweden"

http://www.thelocal.se/15934/20081126/


http://www.thelocal.se/13790/20080819/
3

Alternative (High-Octane) Fuel Head,

Edinburgh 06/03/2009 12:39:19
#1:

Much as I used to loath "Beadle's About" and the like, I would be absolutely ecstatic if a bearded bloke with a withered arm was suddenly to appear and tell us all that the last 11 years had simply been a bad joke---and that there was actually no smoking ban, no hunting ban, no war on booze, no needless deaths in Iraq, no nanny state, no Kenny MacAskill, no Shona Robison and that Teflon Tony's government had actually fallen within a month of coming to power.

However, I somehow suspect that it ain't goin' to happen... Sadly.
4

ochone,

Sauchie, Clack's 06/03/2009 13:35:37
Jeremy Beadles is chief executive of the Wine and Spirit Trade Association.

No bias there then.

We are certainly finding out, just who, whilst admitting that Scotland has a terrible problem, will not make any type of sacrifice towards helping, did somebody mention the common good?
5

Rollo Tommasi,

06/03/2009 13:53:01
Jeremy Beadles' article says everything through what it doesn't say. It is a litany of moans (a few reasonable; most contrived) about the Government's proposals. But isn't it interesting that he says absolutely NOTHING about anything his Wine and Spirit Trade Association might be doing to minimise the misuse of alcohol (e.g. by avoiding inappropriate marketing). His Association seems quite happy to take a parasitic approach of selling whatever alcohol it can to anyone - and leave the ordinary people to deal with the mess.

As for DaveA and English Chas. It's funny how you moan about the loss of pubs in this country. But when proposals are announced which would reduce the competitive advantage that supermarkets have over pubs (by preventing them from selling alcohol at discounted or loss-leading prices), you moan even about that. Your comments show how false your crocodile tear concerns for the pub industry really are.
6

english charlie,

06/03/2009 15:51:24
As for Rollo. It's funny how he moans about tobacco use and yet he hasn't made any comment on the highland council that has over 27 million invested in tobacco companies. Crocodile tears.
7

livilion,

livingston 06/03/2009 16:09:29
Attitudes to alcohol are fixed by experiences and influences as kids.

Our kids now get their attitudes from unsupervised bingeing on supermarket booze with their immature peers in dark alleys, parks and back courts, emulating their elders and role models' glorifying the idea of getting blind drunk for its own sake and as a right of passage into adulthood.

We need to get our kids out of the back alleys and into controlled licenced premises where they can be exposed to acceptable social drinking behaviour.

Pricing or regulating alcohol out of reach only encourages the proliferation of even less savory alternatives.

Liberating drinking hours back in the 70s was an enlightened and neccessary first step, but I'm afraid this country was not and still is not ready for the deregulating of outlets for alcohol sales.

In my view the outlets for alcohol should again be severely curbed and controlled until social attitudes to alcohol achieve equilibrium, as it was pre-1976, to encourage sociable behaviour learned on licenced premices.


We've been trying to run before we'd stopped staggering.
8

DaveA,

Forfarshire 06/03/2009 16:10:38
Rollo, I trust you are well. You may have your public sector salary and pension gold plated, but the rest of us have to live in the real world, not some neo-Marxist cloud cukoo land.

The tax on supermarket booze is effectively a tax on the poor who cannot afford pub prices. Rollo, AC Nielsen the independent Market Analysts estimate that out of the 4,000 pubs that have closed 50%-80% is down to the smoking ban.

I assume you would repeal the smoking ban with immediate effect as you are so concerned about the loss of pubs?

Rollo your software at ASH is obviously red hot for picking up DaveA and Chas on your search engine.


9

Duncan in Edinburgh,

06/03/2009 16:42:32
#8 Can you point me to that AC Nielsen report that estimates that 50%-80% of all pub closures since the smoking ban are the result of that ban?

I couldn't see it on the Nielsen site - only an old report saying that alcohol sales growth had slowed, food sales had increased, and 55% of people say they are more likely to visit a pub if it is non-smoking (compared to 15% who said they were more likely if it was smoking).

A link would be appreciated, thanks.
10

livilion,

livingston 06/03/2009 17:02:23
For decades we have seen booze on the continent as cheap as chips(that's when chips were cheap) but its only us from this side of the channel that get 'roarin fu' on it, why is that?

Some folk it seems don't just drink because they can, and our champagne socialist betters and rulers seem to think that the answer to all of society's ills is to price the poor out of the market.

It appears that our health and the environment are only damaged by the lower classes, but if you can afford to pay then that's fine.

The USA restricts alcohol sales to the over 21s, with the result that American teens spend their nights out of their heads, locked in some toilet cubicle or in a darkened room with the doors and windows locked and the curtains drawn. An example for us to emulate?

I'd suggest we restrict the outlets for alcohol, make licencees more accountable, and alternatively bring teenagers into the pub to learn social drinking amoungst responsible 'grown-ups' rather than behind the chip shop with their schoolchums.

Aye, 16-18 year olds encouraged to drink under supervision on licenced premises but restricting off-sales to pubs, clubs and hotels or old fashioned designated secure off-licences which must be closed down if found to be operated by irresponsible or unscrupulous licencees.

Then after a decade or so, when we've sorted our act out, we can re-visit liberalised off-sales again.
11

livilion,

livingston 06/03/2009 17:15:24
8 DaveA,
Pubs are going the same way as the milkman.

The commodity they sell comes cheaper in bulk from the supermarket, end of.

The only way to save the pub is to make it solely responsible for the retail of alcohol and remove booze from supermarket shelves.

Pubs cannot survive if their patrons are in the habit of loading up on cheaper shop brand spirits before going out at night or going home for a session with a carry out from the local chip shop or petrol station.
12

Rollo Tommasi,

06/03/2009 19:08:24
DaveA: My word, your imagination is running rampant today!! "Public sector salary and pension gold plated"? "Software at ASH"?

If you've actually read the Scottish Government's proposals, you'll know they're not trying to make all alcohol unaffordable. They're targeting discounting by supermarkets, as well as high-strength, cheap booze. A minimum price of 40p per unit of alcohol (which is the figure mooted in their proposals) is unlikely to affect the price of your average can of beer or bottle of wine.

Duncan: Like you, I don't recognise Dave's claim that 50-80% of pub closures are due to the smoking laws. As you say, perhaps Dave can elucidate?
13

Tim85,

Lancs, England 06/03/2009 19:52:15
Rollo - well, Martin Dockrell at ASH recognises that claim that at least 50% of pub closures are caused by the smoking ban. He confirmed as much in an email. (Actually, he wasn't even asked the direct question, 'do you recognise AC Nielsen's figures?' He volunteered the information).

Livilion - cheap supermarket booze has been prevalent for years. Therefore, another factor must be primarily to blame.

As for banning sales to under-21s - perhaps we'll see a drain in young Scots 'emigrating' to England and Wales. That is, until Westminster almost inevitably follow the SNP's socially backward lead.

Of course, there's something profoundly malevolent about penalising the young by forcing them to pay the hiked up prices of off sales in order to drink at home. This is a generation which are going to pay through the nose, perhaps throughout the rest of their lives, to pay for the excesses of the bankers. And I notice the SNP's 'youth wing' are wholly against these plans.

By the way, Dave, despite agreeing with you on many issues, I am a little miffed about your diatribe re: the public sector. Although I must admit, the pension arrangements aren't bad ;)
14

Iris Beltram,

06/03/2009 22:53:38
Most 16 year olds know how to brew their own. Water,sugar,yeast and some flavourings.
They know how to distill or freeze it and obtain 100% alcohol. Then they can go and stand outside a pub (that's where all the action is since the smoking ban) and get the oldest one to go in and buy a couple of mixers.
Voila !! They used to have to actually go inside the pub and had to have proof of age.
What a brilliant piece of legislation was the smoking ban from the government. All the youngsters are getting drunker than ever and taking up smoking !!!
So this argument on pricing is totally irrelevant.

15

DaveA,

Forfarshire 06/03/2009 22:54:11
Duncan, your wish is my command.

"In the meantime here is some independent research by Nielsen's which suggests 50-80% of the pub closures is down to the smoking ban. (My words) From AC Nielsen.

"The wet summer of 2007 has added to the downturn but Nielsen analysts estimate that just under half of the 8% decline can be attributed to the smoking ban.


Analysis of a year’s worth of sales data from Scotland following the ban there last March has identified that volume in licensed premises had fallen some 5%. When compared with trends in England and Wales over the same period, the numbers suggest that the majority of this decline (4%) can be attributed to the smoking ban."

If you would like the full documentation in Word you can email me on:

daveatherton20@hotmail.com



16

livilion,

livingston 06/03/2009 23:26:15
13 Tim85,Lancs, England
I know cheep supermarket booze has been around, it was just much more difficult to get your hands on it if you were under-age.

In the 70s I worked as a 'Saturday boy' at my local Safeway where they had a wines and spirits department which was a self contained shop within the store, with its own staff.

We bought weekend party packs of beer from the pub over the bar back then, much like the 3ltr milk containers which replaced the daily pinta delivered to the doorstep.

If you wanted 'cans' or spirits you had to buy them from a licenced off-sales shop which actively discouraged many under-age teens.

It also meant that it was easier to police alcohol sales because there were far fewer outlets and it was much simpler to trace drink back to a particular vendor.
17

livilion,

livingston 06/03/2009 23:30:05
15 DaveA,Forfarshire
Are you certain that this drop in pub sales is related to the smoking ban, or is it because you can now buy a dozen bottles of beer for less than a tenner from Asda/ Tesco/Sainsbury/Morrisons etc and pubs are charging three or four times that amount?
18

Rollo Tommasi,

06/03/2009 23:42:40
Thanks for the info, Dave. But it seems Duncan and I were absolutely right to question you.

1. You claim Nielsen’s research states that 50-80% of pub closures are due to the smoking laws. Your quotes show that they said no such thing. Their figures relate to a drop in takings – a VERY different thing.

2. Nielsen’s findings relate to the Summer 2007 period. In other words, this was the time when the smoking laws came into effect in England and were only recently in force in Wales and Northern Ireland. But the credit crunch, with all the problems it has created for the pub industry, only began at the back end of the summer and has grown substantially worse since that time. So the findings from Summer 2007 bear little resemblance to the nature of the problems which the pub industry has faced since then.

3. You point to a quote saying that the smoking laws lie behind a fall in takings of around 4%. Think about it. How many previously successful pub businesses are suddenly going to fold because takings fall by as little as 4%? All this figure shows is that a pub business which folded as a result of a 4% drop in income was probably already struggling before the smoking laws came into force.
19

helend498,

06/03/2009 23:52:49
Livilion. Must admit that the only reason I don't visit the pubs anymore is because of the smoking ban (along with many I know as well). I'd return tomorrow if 21st century solutions were applied to 21st century situations.
Unfortunately a blanket smoking ban is not on that list. It is archaic, discriminatory, and breaks up communities, families and society as a whole.
I sit on the sidelines watching and really wonder what this agenda is actually about.
20

Alternative (High Octane) Fuel Head,

Edinburgh 07/03/2009 00:00:41
To all those of you who doubt that the pub closures are due to the smoking ban, two things:-

Firstly, you cannot compare the purchase of alcohol from supermarkets to drinking in a pub. People go down the pub because they want to enjoy the atmosphere. Off licences have always been cheaper than pubs in any case. This is not a factor.

Secondly, from personal experience I KNOW that pub trade has been in steady decline since this brain-dead ban. I was only saying to a fried a couple of weeks ago when Wales were over here for the rugby that the number of people in the pubs then was about the same as it always used to be about 5 years ago---before the ban. Anyone who goes to pubs regularly will know this.

SCRAP THIS STUPID, INSANE, BRAIN-DEAD BAN NOW!!!
21

DaveA,

Forfarshire 07/03/2009 00:14:01
Rollo, when ASH agree with me I must be right. Here is Martin Dockrell of ASH acknowledging the AC Nielsen report. This is in the Financial Times (FT).

"AC Nielsen, the market research group, has reported that beer sales from pubs fell in 2007 and that around half the decline could be ascribed to the anti-smoking law."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cc4256d2-e436-11dd-8274-0000779fd2ac.html

22

Rollo Tommasi,

07/03/2009 00:35:07
DaveA: Did you not read what I said?

Nielsen (and Martin Dockrell) talk about beer sales falling during 2007, with possibly half of that being attributable to the smoking laws.

You claimed something very different in your post 8. You said that the smoking laws were responsible for 50-80% of pub closures, not beer sales reductions. And I think the 4,000 pub closure figure you referred to is meant to cover a far longer period than 2007, with changing circumstances in the intervening time.

So now please tell me where AC Nielsen stated that the smoking laws are responsible for 2,000-3,200 pub closures (i.e. 50-80% of 4,000).
23

Bald headed John,

The Untied Kingdom 07/03/2009 15:42:09
Mr Cromwell, (Rollo)
It's called extrapolation. ASH are extremely good at it.
By virtue of the fact that revenue is down and Nielson claim that 50-80% of that reduction is due to the smoke ban. Pubs rely on revenue to survive and therefore that reduction in revenue is the cause of pub closures.
Easy really.
I know it's a bit "post hoc ergo propter hoc," but that doesn't seem to bother you when it's tobacco control doing it.
24

Rollo Tommasi,

07/03/2009 17:17:10
John: If it's extrapolation, then it's flawed extrapolation.

Like I said before, a successful pub business is not going to collapse because of a 4% reduction in takings.

And the Nielsen figures only applied to 2007. They cannot be used to extrapolate what happened in 2008, when the problems facing the pub industry worsened substantially.

The BBPA reports that beer sales in the last quarter of 2008 were almost 10% less than in the last quarter of 2007 (http://www.beerandpub.com/newsList_detail.aspx?newsId=266). Yet the new smoking laws were already well established by the last quarter of 2007. So, whatever caused the huge drop in sales in the following 12 months, it certainly was not the smoking laws.
25

soapy1,

Rainworth 07/03/2009 17:35:14
In what way Rollo?

It could not be just the supermarkets, pubs have succesfully fought off the cut price supermarkets for years before the smoking ban came into being, they have successfully fought off recessions and wars, hundreds of pubs were demolished during the blitz, and the industry survived, during which recession have 40 pubs a week closed?

If it were supermarkets why the immediate and continuing rise in pub closures since the smoking ban, is it just coincidence?

Or is it as growing numbers of people believe due to the additional burden of the smoking ban on an already overburdened industry?
26

english charlie,

07/03/2009 18:27:51
What hypocrites anti-smokers are. Councils spend millions on quit smoking programmes and yet invest in tobacco company shares.
27

Rollo Tommasi,

07/03/2009 18:29:10
Soapy: I see you’re asking some questions but you’re not answering mine. If the pub’s woes had simply been due to smoking laws driving smokers out of pubs, you’d have found an immediate drop in trade in Summer 2007 (when the English laws came in), and then sales staying flat at that lower level.

But that’s not what’s happening. Sales are continuing to slump, long after the English laws came in. Other factors must be at play.

Several things happened in Summer 2007. England introduced its smoking laws (soon after N Ireland and Wales, and 15 months after Scotland). The wholesale cost of beer rose sharply, due to higher ingredient costs. Supermarkets could cope with this rising cost better than many pubs could. Then the credit crunch started. This caused particular problems for the tenanted sector, since the PubCos, which had benefited from riding asset values, now needed to draw increased rents and sales from tenants to cover for falling values. It also led them to sell off some of their pubs. And then, as the crunch deepened, demand from punters fell more rapidly.

Most publicans recognise that there are many reasons for the industry’s difficulties. And I see that this really annoys the pro-smoking cabal in Freedom2Choose, as your comrades would prefer to blame the smoking laws alone for almost everything.

If the smoking laws had been the only factor, Scotland’s pub sector would have suffered badly and immediately in March 2006, when our smoking laws came into force. Only that didn’t happen. Sure, beer sales fell faster than in the rest of the UK. But, for many pubs, this was offset by increasing wine and food sales. Some traditional pubs did suffer, I’m not denying that. But the biggest problems for most of Scotland’s pubs have happened much more recently than March 2006.

So I’ve addressed your points. Why don’t you deal with mine? How can just a 4% drop in beer sales cause a successful pub business to collapse? And, if the smoking
28

Rollo Tommasi,

07/03/2009 18:29:44
(Contd:)

And, if the smoking laws are to blame for the industry’s problems, why are sales falling almost twice as fast now than when the laws came into force (9.9% for 2008 Q4, compared with 5.6% for 2007 Q3)?
29

soapy1,

rainworth 07/03/2009 19:57:04
Initially I asked you to explain your 4% comment, that meant I did not understand what you were trying to convey,of course I could come in all guns blazing while not fully understanding your meaning, I appreciate you would prefer that but it does not excuse your attitude.

The answer to your question is three words the domino effect! Bad solutions have been applied to an already bad situation to which worse decisions are being contemplated hence the domino effect a nice simple bottom line answer.
30

Rollo Tommasi,

07/03/2009 23:19:39
Soapy: You seem to be annoyed at me because I answered the question you actually asked, rather than the question it seems you wanted to ask. Let me remind you of your question. It was simply: "In what way Rollo?" If you'd wanted me to explain my 4% comment, I would have done so.

And as for your remark about the recent problems of the pub industry being "the domino effect" - what an empty excuse for a reason that is. Would you care to justify your claim? And, if you do so, would you care to explain why there was no such domino effect in Scotland in the 18 months or so before the credit crunch struck?
31

Tim85,

Lancs, England 08/03/2009 00:34:46
"Soapy: I see you’re asking some questions but you’re not answering mine. If the pub’s woes had simply been due to smoking laws driving smokers out of pubs, you’d have found an immediate drop in trade in Summer 2007 (when the English laws came in), and then sales staying flat at that lower level." But sales DID begin to slow down at a marked rate. This was then exacerbated by the economic downturn, but the original caltalyst is palpably obvious.

"... And then, as the crunch deepened, demand from punters fell more rapidly." Which is odd. This never seemed to have happened in previous recessions to this degree - and it's not as if this country hasn't experienced any in recent years. There were 3 in the 1980s/90s, and they were protracted and painful. Admittedly this one COULD be worse, but there's no way of knowing that now.

"John: If it's extrapolation, then it's flawed extrapolation." We were inspired by Jamrozik for that one ;)

"3. You point to a quote saying that the smoking laws lie behind a fall in takings of around 4%. Think about it. How many previously successful pub businesses are suddenly going to fold because takings fall by as little as 4%?"

Well, a BBPA figure quoted 7.7%. Other figures have quoted as much as 10-15%. This reflects the cross-section of experiences across the sector. Many small businesses, even with a fairly good business model, would fail to cope with such a loss in revenue.
32

soapy1,

08/03/2009 02:18:45
Were you asking me specifically then?
My apologies I did not see my name attached.

Firstly I would point out that July is (allegedly) High Summer in the UK, it is normal to find a majority of customers outside enjoying the nice weather this then would not affect the numbers of customers so that there would not be an immediate drop in numbers.

Since people (and the law still regards smokers as people unlike some members of the anti-smoking lobby)do not like standing around freezing and generally being trated as second class citizens (could we have a second class citizen tax rate lower than the first class citizens please Mr Darling?)it comes as no great surprise that smokers are more inclined to buy supermarket beer or brew their own (25p a pint folks and very popular in Scotland these days!)then stay at home enjoying vivacious company, cigarettes music/footie or whatever floats their boat with a few bevvies just like a pub really.

Regrettably it means some publicans lose their homes, their livlihoods, savings and cost the state millions more in benefits, but then smokers are no longer welcome,If they want to survive they should tell the government that they need the smokers revenue to survive and that means internal smoking rooms, we would fight for them then tooth and nail that way the domino effect works for them and not against them.

You claim the domino effect is lame, the hospitality industry you say was in trouble before the ban, good we agree then, the supermarkets have been undercutting the pubs for years yes?

So enabling an act of parliament depriving the pubs of a large number of their core customers helps them a lot, actually it is the first domino falling, every customer who stays at home is another domino knocking over the next domino until ther are no dominos standing. Voila! The domino effect in action, what is going to happen when Scotland enacts it minimum pricing bill?

Westminister still benefits from tax on whisky, as the dis
33

soapy1,

08/03/2009 02:20:42
Westminister still benefits from tax on whisky, as the distilleries fall they'll tax the remainder higher to make up the shortfall, the domino effect again! Then follow suit in the rest of the UK increasing the tax burden there too, more dominos until all the dominos have fallen and with them the hospitality industry.

This is the bottom line it will not get any worse, in fact it will be irrecoverable long before it reaches that point, when there willbe insufficient pubs to to make brewing beer profitable then draugh beer as dead as the Dodo. odes this mean wecan enjoy millions of beer bottles inhabiting our streets with the dog ends and last nights take away, a rodents paradise! Brere Fox will grace us with his presence more frequently than he does now as would Brock Badger and winkle the Hedgehog, lets face it folks these guys clean up for nothing cheaper than dustbinmen!

Hang on a minute! don't they carry fleas and diseases? let's pay the dustbin men to cull them! then they can go back to waiting for their customers to do 80% of theirwork for them while the council reaps in an obscene profit fining them for for getting it wrong.

Think none of this could happen do you?
Look around you most of it is here already! Courtesy of the domino effect.
34

Rollo Tommasi,

08/03/2009 10:05:33
Soapy/Tim: I’m going to deal with both your points together.

Tim’s throwing a few figures around about reductions in beer sales. But he’s not making clear what these figures refer to. I think he’s using figures about declines in beer sales from ALL causes, not just the smoking laws. The 4% stat was a figure (first used by DaveA, not me) to estimate the loss in on-trade beer sales caused by the smoking laws.

Soapy at least acknowledges that the hospitality industry has problems before the smoking laws came in. But do you realise how extensive these problems were? According to the same BBPA link I gave earlier, on-trade sales of beer fell by 28% (from 6.59m barrels to 4.73m barrels) in the 10 years to Q2 2007 (i.e. just before the English smoking laws came into force). In the same period, off-trade sales of beer ROSE by 45% (from 2.41m to 3.50m barrels).

So let’s think about this. On-trade beer sales fell by 28% in the 10 years until end June 2007. And figures suggest that the smoking laws may have accounted for a further 4% fall in on-trade sales. These figures completely blow away Soapy’s “domino effect” arguments, as they show the dominos have been falling for many years. And a 4% drop in sales due to the smoking laws is no more than the fall in sales the hospitality industry was already facing every 18 months anyway.

If the smoking laws had been the main cause of the pub industry’s woes, the biggest falls in trade would have occurred as soon as the laws came into force. But they didn’t. On-trade beer sales fell more in the 12 months to 2008 Q3 and Q4 than they did in the 12 months to 2007 Q3 and Q4. Further proof that other factors have caused bigger problems for the pub trade.

And when Tim asks why pubs should be worse affected now than in previous recessions, the changes in sales patterns over the years is a big reason why – pubs are selling much less beer to begin with and many were struggling before this recession even began. And
35

Rollo Tommasi,

08/03/2009 10:06:25
(Contd....)

And when Tim asks why pubs should be worse affected now than in previous recessions, the changes in sales patterns over the years are a big reason why – pubs are selling much less beer to begin with and many were struggling before this recession even began. And supermarkets are much more powerful than they were in previous recessions, taking a much bigger slice of the beer market and being able to sell for much less in real terms than they did earlier. And then you have the problems which the PubCos have caused the tenanted sector. They only came into the market around 1990, so were not a feature of 1980s recessions. But now they are causing tied pubs major problems by charging high rents and forcing tenants to buy wholesale from them at uncompetitive rates.
36

helend498,

08/03/2009 11:27:40
I find it extremely difficult to understand how some people still seem to think that the smoking ban has very little to do with the pubs closing.

Paul Waterson, the chief executive of the Scottish Licensed Trade Association, and THE HEAD of Scotland's main hospitality, off-licence and entertainment body, has just advised Scots not to consider entering the industry as the drinks trade is struggling to cope with 'a hangover' caused by the smoking ban and soaring costs.
http://www.sundayherald.com/business/businessnews/display.var.2210298.0.dont_
become_a_publican_potential_tenants_warned.php

There are so many professional bodies stating that the smoking ban has had a negative impact on trade, and yet we still have so many idividuals who won't accept that fact. It really amazes me.


37

english charlie,

08/03/2009 12:42:08
We all know that the smoking ban has nothing to do with pub closures, because ASH said it wouldn't. Ash also said that the smoking ban would reduce the smoking rate. ASH wouldn't lie would they? Highland council believed ASH and that is why the bought shares in tobacco companies.
38

helend498,

08/03/2009 13:29:10
ASH must be extremely embarrassed now about this press release that they gave:
http://www.ash.org.uk/ash_sw6e2rjs.htm,
particularly now that Martin Dockrell has confirmed the opposite. They should hang their heads in shame and apologise for the misinformation that they spread in the run up to the bans.
Their silence is deafening.
39

soapy1,

Rainworth 08/03/2009 14:01:08
Thank you for your reply Rollo, it is rare to recieve a reply that says more because of what it does not say than what it does.

I am not complaining you choose your own tactics and I am sure you know what you are doing.

Where statistics are concerned they written in a language suitable for economists, econominists understand it politicians and and the average voter do not, it needs explaining to them an dthe only people who can explain it are economists.

Hyperthetically then you can tell an economist what you want to prove and he/she will prove it statistically, as will a statistical annylist. given those circumstances that makes any figures suspect for both sides of the debate.

The same is true of epidemiology as can be seen by the results of their work for the anti smoking lobby, Ash has said it is commited to stamping out smoking, lo and behold the figures support it where the science denies it, we have a 'missing WHO report that categorically says that the impact of SHS is minimal at best, The HSE who magically change their findings from a categorical denail of SHS harm to a well they may be right position.

Then we have a government that says that they wish to impose a partial ban exempting pubs, clubs and the leisure industry. Along comes ASH with their figures and before we know we have without consultation (consultations of stakeholders do not count they are clearly biased and often difficult to get any point across due to the way they are worded) a nd empty promises of non smokers filling the void left by smokers.

So no surprise that we are where we are today once it is put in terms the layman actually understands.
40

Rollo Tommasi,

08/03/2009 19:06:38
Soapy: You say: "I am not complaining you choose your own tactics and I am sure you know what you are doing.". Yes, I am trying to consider the evidence about the issue. Freedom2Choose's attitude seems to be to ignore anything you don't like, and misquote and cherry-pick information where it suits you.

For example, the F2C contingent on this board seem determined to ignore the evidence I've given you. I see you guys have no answers to my points. I doubt you'll be prepared to acknowledge I might be right. So you have no option but to ignore my points. But you still try to suggest at the end (without any supporting evidence) that the "void" in pubs is mostly due to the smoking laws. In doing so, you ignore the fact that most publicans in difficulty point to other factors (credit crunch, attitudes of pubcos) as bigger causes of their problems than the smoking laws.

Cherry-picking evidence: Isn't it funny how the pro-smoking lobby only ever refer to a few of the many studies out there? You're referring now to an old favourite of the pro-smoking lobby - the 1998 WHO study. Only you conveniently choose to ignore that it still found the passive smoking increases the risk of harm.

Misquoting: HSE has never claimed that SHS is harmless. F2C choose to deliberately misquote a sentence from one HSE document, in an attmept to pretend HSE once thought there was no evidence to suggest SHS is harmful. Only HSE said no such thing. And F2C ALWAYS choose to IGNORE the fact that, in the very same leaflet, HSE said "There is no completely effective way of protecting employees from the
effects of SHS, short of a total smoking ban". Why do you never refer to that quote????
41

ChrisUK,

09/03/2009 00:13:18
I find the comment on #40 quite absurd really. All those who have followed the debate regarding anti-smoking (pro-choice or anti-smoking) know that 5 out of 6 studies have always shown no harm in ETS. Some a positive effect.
I acknowledge that ASH misinformed in the comment made in #38.
I agree that the pubs are in decline for a variety of reasons - the smoking ban being one of them, and a major player.
I'm just greatful that at long last epidemiology is now starting to be questioned in this current climate. Let's face it, it isn't allowable in a court of law, so why should laws be based on it?
We're living in the 21st century now and have 21st century technology and solutions. Why aren't they being used? Why are we returning to the history books which has proven time after time that prohibition is not the way forward?
Our MPs are obviously poorly-educated as far as history is concerned. They could learn an awful lot from other's mistakes.
42

Rollo Tommasi,

09/03/2009 01:17:38
ChrisUK calls my comments "absurd". But he doesn't challenge anything I said about what has harmed the pub industry, or about how the pro-smoking lobby resorts to cherry-picking evidence and misquoting.

Even most of what he does say is wrong. He argues "5 out of 6 studies have always shown no harm in ETS. Some a positive effect". That is absolutely wrong. ChrisUK - if you had bothered to read any of these studies for yourself, perhaps you could tell me which of these actually state that SHS is harmless. I can tell you, for instance, that the 1998 WHO study says no such thing. Nor does the 2003 Enstrom and Kabat report, even though the pro-smoking lobby like to make claims about that one too.

The large majority of studies show a harmful risk of lung cancer or heart disease from passive smoking. When the results of these studies are considered together (i.e. not cherry-picking the one or two which vaguely support the pro-smokers' cause), the overall message is that the risk of passive smoking to health is real and statistically significant too.

Then, bizarrely, ChrisUK states "prohibition is not the way forward". Perhaps you hadn't noticed, but smoking is not prohibited. People still have the right to smoke. They just need to make sure they do not light up in an enclosed public space where their habit can put others in harm's way.

And ChrisUK makes another absurd comment that epidemiology "isn't allowable in a court of law". Ermmm, yes it is Chris. Do you have any lawyers in F2C? Perhaps they can explain the truth to you.

Perhaps, before Chris accuses MPs of being poorly-educated, he should get a few facts right for himself.
43

soapy1,

Rainworth 09/03/2009 04:25:30
Rollo I am Soapy writing as Soapy not for or on behalf of F2C, please save your rhetoric for those who state specifically that they are writing for or on behalf of F2c, if and when I choose to write for or on behalf of F2C i will be sure to make it clear.

I think you missed a part of that HSE statement out, Paragraph 9 goes on to say:

The evidential link between individual circumstances of exposure to risk in
exempted premises will be hard to establish. In essence, HSE cannot
produce epidemiological evidence to link levels of exposure to SHS to the
raised risk of contracting specific diseases and it is therefore difficult to prove
health-related breaches of the Health and Safety at Work Act.

It is not the entire paragraph but the part revelent to your statement.

That looks like The HSE disagree's with the epidemiological evidence to me contrary to what you have stated, and further that even if they did they cannot easily prove it ergo there is no significant provable risk to SHS.

The bottom line Rollo is not whether you or I are right but what the individual believes is right, they are free to choose what they believe and that is what I am fighting so hard for, the freedom to choose, my beliefs, what I indulge in, where and when I do so, who I associate with, even whether I choose to own a horse in favour over a car to reduce pollution and deaths from cancer!

Anyone who values freedom would fight for all these and more, they are the values I served in the armed forces to protect, the values that our servicemen and women are today dying abroad and at home to protect both for you and me.
44

Rollo Tommasi,

09/03/2009 07:34:49
Soapy: I didn’t expect you to get so touchy about having your comments criticised. You’re absolutely entitled to your comments, sure. But all of us who choose to record our views on public boards such as this (yes, including me) should be prepared to have our views challenged or criticised.

Why do I often mention F2C? It’s not because you all have identical views. After all, although you guys appear to be united behind opposing the present smoking laws, you don’t seem to be able to agree on exactly how the laws should be changed.

I mention F2C often because most of its members appear to have developed a kind of cult mentality. You convince yourselves that the smoking laws are wrong and it appears all you consider is the biased rantings of other pro-smokers. You simply don’t consider any “independent” research, especially if it challenges your prejudiced views.

What this means is that, when you come onto public boards like this, your arguments can quickly be torn to shreds. You’ve tried to argue that the smoking laws are the major reason for the problems facing pubs but have not responded to my counter-arguments. You’ve nothing to say in response to my criticism that you are simply cherry-picking evidence.

You have now come back about what the HSE document said. But Soapy, you’re comments are absolutely wrong. I’m well aware of the quote you refer to. But it says nothing like you claim – which is that HSE denies that SHS is harmful. What that quote CLEARLY says is that HSE is not aware of evidence which allows them to say precisely how much a person’s risk of lung cancer or heart disease will increase based on an exact measure of how much SHS they’ve been exposed to (i.e. if someone has been exposed to X amount of SHS, then their risk of harm will increase by Y%).

And why – once again – do you choose to ignore what HSE also said in that very same document: "There is no completely effective way of protecting employees from the effects of SHS,
45

Rollo Tommasi,

09/03/2009 07:35:34
And why – once again – do you choose to ignore what HSE also said in that very same document: "There is no completely effective way of protecting employees from the effects of SHS, short of a total smoking ban"?
46

livilion,

livingston 10/03/2009 09:40:12
32 soapy1,
That comment about smokers being treated as second class citizens, I'd just like to add my own wee experience from last summer(that was the Saturday):
After a funeral in East Kilbride village some of the mourners dropped into the old pub there next to the kirk, seeing tables with parasols set out in the square it looked really inviting, that day it was really hot and sunny. We bought our drinks and took them out to our girls relaxing under the parasols, it was idillic, only to be soundly chastised by 'mine host' who came charging out of his hostelry "no drinks to be taken outside, these tables are strictly for smokers only".
If you want to sit in the shade on a sunny day in East Kilbride, you'd better be only out there to smoke.
47

livilion,

livingston 10/03/2009 09:49:40
44 Rollo Tommasi

2nd that, a few weeks back the same shower bleeted that hospital workers were being victimised and the human rights infringed because the NHS was introducing a carpet ban on smoking while in uniform.

The idea that the act of smoking introduced dangerous bacteria onto their hands was greeted by a reaction similar to the 'I don't wash my hands after using the toilet because I don't pee on my fingers'.

In other words; I'm alright Jack...

 

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