IT'S not quite the historic showdown between Barack Obama and John McCain, but the countdown has now begun to the long-awaited Glenrothes by-election.
And the result of the Fife contest – which takes place just two days after the US presidential election – could provide the first evidence of how voters are reacting to the current economic crisis.
The SNP is still riding high in the polls after n
early 18 months in power at Holyrood. But the banking collapse and the resulting financial earthquake have seen the focus of attention shift to the Government at Westminster.
The fast-changing economic situation, last week's dramatic Cabinet reshuffle and Gordon Brown's handling of the crisis will all be offered up for the voters' verdict on November 6.
Nevertheless, the SNP still start as favourites to take the seat from Labour, despite the 10,664 majority last time.
In times past, a by-election in such a strongly working-class constituency as Glenrothes – which includes Cardenden, Markinch, the Wemyss villages and Methil, as well as the new town itself – would not have caused a ripple. Labour would have held the seat effortlessly.
It is a measure of the dramatic change in Scottish politics that, following the Nationalist victory in the equivalent seat of Central Fife at last year's Holyrood elections, this contest is being seen as the SNP's to lose.
The SNP need a 13.8 per cent swing to take the seat – well below the 22.5 per cent they achieved in Glasgow East. And a poll in the constituency last month found Labour and the SNP neck and neck.
Former Glenrothes MP John MacDougall died in August after a long battle against the lung disease mesothelioma.
But Labour was in no rush to call a by-election to replace him. In its two previous by-elections, Crewe & Nantwich and Glasgow East, it made a dash to the polls, only to suffer devastating defeats.
This time, it was judged a quick contest, hot on the heels of the SNP's Glasgow victory, would do Labour no good. Better to wait until Gordon Brown had had the chance to rally the troops at the party conference – and there was always the possibility the economy might begin to pick up again.
Instead, the economic situation has got dramatically worse. But ironically that may have a more significant effect. It means voters will arguably see the Prime Minister at his best, using the experience of his ten years as Chancellor to handle an unprecedented global financial crisis.
A senior Labour insider said: "People are finally recognising this is a worldwide problem and since he has been saying it for so long, their reaction is 'Gordon Brown was right'. And it has made Alex Salmond look quite small because he has no power."
The by-election was once going to be the watershed to decide Gordon Brown's fate as Prime Minister. But the agitation for a change of leadership in the Labour Party has died down because of the economic crisis.
And some believe yesterday's dramatic rescue package, along with the shock return of Peter Mandelson in last week's Cabinet reshuffle – far better handled than most of Tony Blair's reshuffles – show Mr Brown has a grip on the crisis.
Iain Gray's election to replace Wendy Alexander as Scottish Labour leader and Jim Murphy's appointment as full-time Scottish Secretary both help to give the party a fresh start after Glasgow East.
But the change might not have time to filter through.
An SNP source said: "The by-election is too soon for Labour's fightback."
He believes the SNP will win, but he said: "Labour are digging their heels in and are more up for a fight. They are being more cute about things, bringing Jim Murphy on board and so on."
And he admitted the Nationalists are not managing to get activists out to campaign in this by-election in the same numbers as they did for Glasgow East.
Whether it's the darker nights or an element of fatigue, he's not sure. "We're just not getting the same bodies going through. People seemed a lot more prepared to go and work in Glasgow East – but it was the summer recess and easier for people to take time off to help."
And he pointed out there are also several local council by-elections under way, including the one in Edinburgh's Forth ward.
Mr Brown was heavily criticised for his failure to make an appearance in Glasgow East during the by-election and there are signs he is ready to ignore the "convention" that Prime Ministers don't get involved in by-elections and join the campaign in Glenrothes.
His intervention, when he was Chancellor, in the last Fife by-election – Dunfermline & West Fife in 2006 – did not prevent the embarrassment of the seat falling to the Liberal Democrats.
The Lib Dems and the Tories are both also-rans in this contest. But Glenrothes is right next door to Mr Brown's own Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath constituency and staying away would be portrayed as cowardice.
Jim Murphy has said Labour is the underdog in this contest. Some believe the party has already lost.
And the SNP is already accusing Labour of hoping to bury a bad result in the aftermath of the US elections.
But, just as Obama seems to be edging ahead of his rival due to the economic crisis, it is just possible financial turmoil could help Mr Brown out of trouble.
