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Ian Swanson: Labour looking for 'Obama bounce'

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Published Date: 05 March 2009
GORDON BROWN will arrive in Dundee tomorrow to address Labour's Scottish faithful, hotfoot from his trip to the United States and his meeting with President Barack Obama.
The Prime Minister's address to delegates, no doubt focusing on the economic situation, will set the tone for the speeches and debates at the party's Scottish conference over the next three days.

It's a long way from the White House to the Caird H
all.

The global financial crisis means the concerns about jobs, mortgages and the plight of ordinary families is the same in both places.

The economic situation is set to be the dominant theme of the conference. Non-stop discussion of recession, redundancies and repossessions might not be anyone's first choice of how to spend a weekend – especially if your party is being accused of being responsible for the whole depressing picture.

Despite the attempts by the other parties to pin the blame for the recession and the banking crisis on the Government in general and Mr Brown in particular, Labour insiders claim the opposition's accusations are not hitting home with the voters.

One insider says: "The work we have done with focus groups shows people expect the Government to respond to the economic problems, but they firmly blame the banks and the international economic situation.

"The Tories' attacks are just not resonating. People want us to put our heads down and help them through this rather than play the blame game."

The agenda for Dundee also includes key debates on education, health and crime – all issues which voters care about and which fall within the remit of the Scottish Parliament.

But Labour is acutely aware that long before the next Holyrood elections, in 2011, the party faces European elections this June and, of course, a general election for Westminster before summer next year.

So, as well as focusing on the economy, the conference will give a platform to three leading UK Cabinet ministers – deputy leader Harriet Harman, Work and Pensions Secretary James Purnell and Climate Change Secretary Ed Miliband – as well as to Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy.

Ms Harman has been accused in recent weeks of positioning herself to become Labour's next leader, but one former minister insists there is no leadership crisis, adding wryly "just a general crisis about winning the next election".

With recent polls showing the Tories ahead again, there is a feeling in some Labour circles that defeat at the general election is inevitable.

But a senior figure argues that even if the party loses in England, it will not do so badly in Scotland, despite the SNP's continuing popularity.

"When it comes to Westminster elections, it's a Labour-Tory fight – and the Tories are not strong in Scotland.

"People may not like us, but they like the Tories even less.

"The anti-Labour vote will be more fragmented and the SNP will struggle to reach its target of 20 seats."

This weekend's Scottish Labour conference is Iain Gray's first as leader. He took over the helm just in time to address last autumn's UK party conference in Manchester, but he has not yet delivered a leader's address on home turf.

Labour at Holyrood were in a much worse position this time last year, with the row over Wendy Alexander's campaign donations swirling around her leadership.

On the eve of last year's conference, former Labour Scottish Office Minister Brian Wilson launched a scathing attack on her for "prattling on" about constitutional change.

In a portent of a controversy to come, he said on television: "To be honest, I would rather have a referendum than this sort of incremental nonsense of fiddling about with powers."

Mr Wilson, for one, should be happy with this year's conference agenda – despite all the chat about a referendum and the ongoing work of the cross-party Calman Commission, the issue of the constitution does not appear.

Of course, when people are worried about losing their jobs and having their homes repossessed, it is fair to argue that extra powers for Holyrood politicians is not top of people's priorities.

But given that the SNP has been accused of trying to "clear the decks" for its promised referendum and Alex Salmond has appointed Mike Russell as "Minister for Independence" to mastermind the independence campaign, Labour could be accused of ignoring a crucial debate.

Labour's submission to the Calman Commission is vague on increased financial powers for the Scottish Parliament and many Scottish Labour MPs at Westminster are still unhappy about any more powers for Holyrood.

One Labour MSP, frustrated after studying the agenda, said: "I was looking for the constitutional debate so I could speak, but it's not there. I suppose people don't want these differences aired in public."

Another party insider says the constitutional question is a "non-event" for the vast majority of Labour activists.

"When it comes to the debates on the floor of conference, what people will be talking about is the cuts being made in their areas as a result of the council tax freeze – like cuts in nursery places and children's services. That's what motivates people and that's what concerns the voters."

Gordon Brown will be hoping for an "Obama bounce" as a result of his trip to Washington. Labour in Scotland will hope this weekend can persuade the voters it shares its concerns and priorities.





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  • Last Updated: 05 March 2009 2:37 PM
  • Source: Edinburgh Evening News
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Related Topics: Ian Swanson
 
1

,

05/03/2009 15:08:38
Comment Removed By Administrator
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2

JoeMiddleton,

Edinburgh 05/03/2009 16:22:48
while Brown has been running about in America (widely reported here, not much coverage there) one of his Scots puppets here has been shooting himself in the foot by ruling out an independence referendum.

When will Labour learn that they do not have a veto on Scots aspirations. Since they and the Lib Dems are determined to join the Tories in blocking any choice on independence let them share the Tories electoral 'success' in Scotland.
3

Marian,

05/03/2009 16:48:50
When Gordon Brown was Chancellor of the Exchequer he was dubbed "Macavity the cat" because he went to ground and could never be found whenever there was anything unpleasant going on for the New Labour government e.g. the protests over the illegal invasion of Iraq.

Once he became the UK's unelected P.M. there was nowhere to hide from the "buck stopping on his desk" - or so we thought, except that he has now adopted denial of everything as his response every time there is anything unpleasant going on for the New Labour government e.g the complete failure of his UK banking regulatory system that brought the UK economy to its knees.

So here's hoping Flash Gordon (saviour of the universe) bounces on and on as P.M. until he is thrashed and humiliated comprehensively at the next UK General Election.
4

,

05/03/2009 19:34:18
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5

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 05/03/2009 23:39:44
"People may not like us, but they like the Tories even less. The anti-Labour vote will be more fragmented and the SNP will struggle to reach its target of 20 seats."

If they don't like you, and they don't like the Tories, who is going to fragment the vote? The Lib Dems? There shambolic behaviour over the budget and Calman has cost them what little support they ever had.
6

Gregor Addison,

Glasgow 06/03/2009 10:17:36
The thing about Obama is that he has a raft of proposals to change the course of political life in America. Brown is a busted flush. In Scotland, the Labour party have not moved on any further from the platform on which they fought and lost the last election.

This weekend's NatBash will not help either Brown or Gray. Opposition to SNP policies for the sake of it helps no-one and I don't believe that Labour will benefit from this 'strategy of attrition'. Labour have no answer to tackling problem drinking (witness Douglas Alexander on Question Time last night), they have no answer to the Council Tax (other than, as an embarrassed Iain Gray said on Politics Now last night(Council Tax 2), nor do they have an answer to replace the discredited PPP/PFI schemes that leave us - as the banks did - up to our necks in debt. Labour need policies to prosper. Until they have them, they will be nothing more than the anti-SNP party, and may go the way of the Liberals and Tories who could not grasp the fact that change was afoot and party traditions were not enough to save them.
7

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06/03/2009 10:31:01
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8

Gtj,

06/03/2009 10:39:42
"Labour looking for 'Obama bounce'" -

The only thing that will have any bounce is Gordon Duffs back end when it hits the deck right after he is kicked out of number 10.
9

BIG EYE,

Paisley 06/03/2009 17:26:11
Thanks for the laugh..the Obama bounce indeed!

I can sum up the Labour bounce at the next election....SPLAT!!!!

 

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