DAVID CAMERON will address the Scottish Tory conference in Perth tomorrow, hoping that 12 months from now he will be on the verge of becoming Prime Minister.
But if he does get to No. 10 after winning a general election in May next year, he knows it won't be on the back of Scottish votes.
Wiped out in the 1997 Labour landslide, the Tories in Scotland still have only one MP – and insiders admit five or
six is the most they can hope for next time.
Mr Cameron is acutely aware that even if he can win an overall majority at Westminster, Scotland will still present a problem for him.
The recent 30th anniversary of Margaret Thatcher's first election victory was a timely reminder of the unpopularity a government can create for itself by imposing policies which Scots have not voted for.
And the Tory leader is eager to avoid history repeating itself. In weekend interviews ahead of the conference, he spoke about the need for co-operation and respect between Westminster and Holyrood governments.
And he even appeared to concede the "mandate" argument, telling one TV programme: "If we win the election I know I will not have enough MPs in Scotland to just say 'well, we have an automatic mandate', and I will be straight up to Scotland to talk to the First Minister and say to everyone who wants to make the United Kingdom work – I will work with you.
"I will govern the UK in a way that shows respect to people in Scotland, that recognises that they may not have voted en masse for the Conservative Party."
So could a Prime Minister Cameron work with First Minister Alex Salmond?
According to one scenario, the Scottish Nationalists would welcome a Tory victory because they believe it would underline the political gap between Scotland and the rest of the UK and thus boost support for independence.
But Mr Cameron is likely to be careful and canny enough not to provoke the Scottish government unnecessarily.
He has talked of monthly meetings between the Scottish Secretary and the First Minister to help promote co- operation and says he has no plans for an immediate shake-up of the Barnett formula.
The Tories and the SNP have diametrically opposite objectives in terms of the constitution.
Mr Cameron says he leads "the party of the Union" and has pledged to do "all in my power" to maintain the relationship between Scotland and England, while Mr Salmond is determined to hold a referendum on independence next autumn.
But sources on both sides say that does not mean there would be no room for the two elected governments working together.
The Tories in the Scottish Parliament have already proved that despite their opposite views on the country's future, they are very capable of forming an alliance on issues where they can agree, such as police numbers and drugs strategy.
And there is not the same "tribal" enmity between the SNP and the Tories as there is between the Nationalists and Labour.
Opinion polls have been giving the Tories a clear lead at UK level for some time now, although Mr Cameron is still well short of the ratings Tony Blair enjoyed a year out from his victory in 1997 and no-one knows if there will be clearer evidence of economic recovery in a year's time.
But Gordon Brown's popularity appears to have reached an all-time low. And Mr Cameron has done well in seizing the initiative on the expenses issue, ordering his MPs to repay excessive claims – though even a refund to the public purse seems unlikely to remove the outrage at politicians who felt it was somehow okay to get taxpayers to pay for work on their swimming pools, tennis courts, chandeliers and moats.
The SNP could benefit at the election from disillusionment with the two main parties over the expenses scandals.
But Mr Salmond's target of 20 Westminster seats may prove to be too optimistic and the odds have to be against his dream of holding the balance of power so that Westminster would "dance to a Scottish jig".
Nevertheless, a Tory UK government might still find the SNP at Holyrood holding the upper hand when it comes to Scotland.
Whoever wins the Westminster election is going make major spending cuts which Scotland cannot escape – and however inevitable that might be, it still offers a target for attack.
Mr Cameron and Mr Salmond would both fall over themselves to be reasonable so long as it suited them. But there could always come a day when the SNP decided to tell voters they were suffering at the hands of a UK government they had not voted for.
